Monday, May 16, 2016

What I Question About Bernie (And What I Don't)...

At some point between now and July 28th, Bernie Sanders will have to bow to reality- he won't be the nominee for President of the Democratic Party unless something truly amazing happens. He won't have as many pledged delegates, and the super-delegates will never switch to him, and he will finish in second place in this Democratic race. Senator Sanders will return to the U.S. Senate and presumably finish his career out in that, or some other role besides President. What will remain beyond him is the agenda that he has put forward, the vision for the country. Ultimately, this always mattered more than the person anyway.

I have never actually questioned the feasibility of what Bernie Sanders has proposed. "Medicare for all," free-college for all, breaking up the banks, getting money out of politics, expanding Social Security, raising the minimum wage, and even the accompanying tax breaks are all actually possible things, on paper. If you have the political will to pass these laws, the resources are there, you just have to make the accompanying values judgments to do them. If you're willing to spend less on Defense spending, if you're willing to uncap Payroll Taxes, if you're willing to cast the votes in Congress to defy the interest groups that would line up against all of these ideas, America could do them. I'm not passing judgment here on whether or not we should, but it's entirely possible.

Aside from whether or not these ideas are right, I've never believed we have the political will to actually do all the things Bernie is proposing. President Obama essentially lost Congress for three-fourths of his Presidency to pass the Affordable Care Act. Bernie's "revolution" is not going to suddenly spur a more conservative Congress to act on all of his big ideas, and the American people are not going to suddenly support his big actions to the levels to make Congress want to risk their jobs for him. If the Congress we had in 2009-2010 would not expand Medicare, Bernie isn't going to pass "Medicare for All." If the Congress we had in 2009-2010 gave us Dodd-Frank, Bernie isn't going to ride in like he's Teddy Roosevelt and destroy the banking system in America. To be fair, things like overturning Citizens United or at least raising the minimum wage somewhat are very possible in the next Presidency, and perhaps it's a good long-term goal to want free college and Medicare-for-all, but he's proposing an activist legislative agenda that is simply not going to happen in the next four years. To make it worse, nothing in Bernie's Congressional career suggests that he's the guy to make this happen.

I don't believe that Bernie Sanders is going to be the Democratic nominee, much less the next President of the United States, so really the question of what he can do is not that relevant really. The next President should be a Democrat, probably one that will preside over a divided Congress and have limited ability to pass legislation. My guess is that this next President, probably Hillary Clinton, will be able to pass a few choice items- a minimum wage increase of some kind, possibly immigration reform (if Paul Ryan is willing to let it see a vote), some sort of grand tax bargain that includes exchanges on corporate taxes and payroll taxes that both sides will have to accept, maybe some improvements on student loans, and possibly some improvements on infrastructure and energy. That is not nearly as exciting as the agenda that Bernie has put forward, but I think that's the reality we live in. Only a wildly effective President and legislature can structurally change Social Security's future path, short of an actual crisis arriving for the program, and things like free college for all and Medicare expansion for everyone are not going to be able to pass in this next term.

The real question is the long-term though, and whether or not some future progressive will be able to pick up Sanders' platform and run with it. I don't doubt that it is possible to do the things Sanders' proposes. I don't doubt that you can do the things he's proposing, but I do doubt their political viability. Can some currently nameless future candidate for President change the political dynamic and make passing free college tuition and single-payer health care possible? That is probably the more important question that comes out of this primary campaign, moving forward in progressive politics.

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