The State of the Race: Oregon and Kentucky

It's Mid-May, and we're still talking Presidential Primaries. That's not because the race is actually competitive or something, it's because Bernie Sanders hasn't dropped out yet. Tonight, Oregon and Kentucky are up for grabs in both parties, as Hillary Clinton aims to end the discussion and Donald Trump just looks to secure 103 more delegates.

On the Democratic side, this is the current delegate situation-

• Pledged (Elected Delegates, 2,026 needed to secure majority of 4,051)- Hillary Clinton 1,716 Bernie Sanders 1,433. Clinton up +283.
• Super Delegates (Party and Elected Leaders, 358 needed to secure majority of 714)- Hillary Clinton 524 Bernie Sanders 40. Clinton up +484
• Total Delegates (4,765 total, 2,383 needed to secure majority)- Hillary Clinton 2,240 Bernie Sanders 1,473. Clinton up +767.

That tells you the story of the race- it's not very close. In Kentucky tonight, 55 pledged delegates are on the line. In Oregon tonight, 61 are up for grabs. After tonight, the U.S. Virgin Islands (7), Puerto Rico (60), California (475), Montana (21), New Jersey (126), New Mexico (34), North Dakota (18), South Dakota (20), and Washington, DC (19) still remain for pledged delegates, totaling up to 780 remaining pledged delegates left, with a few odd state conventions still out there to add a couple of others, getting us to 786 remaining delegates. Clinton needs just 310 to win the majority of the elected delegates, or the will of the people. With 143 delegates, she will reach 2,383, including the super-delegates.

I'm assuming Bernie Sanders is a favorite in Kentucky. That's an unsafe assumption, given that there hasn't been a poll in close to a year. Yes, he won West Virginia big and took Indiana, but she won Ohio, Tennessee, and Illinois, all border states. I'm going to give him a 30-25 split as my pick. In Oregon, it's even harder to read. Sanders has won Washington and Idaho next door, but Clinton leads in the polls. I want to be as charitable as possible to him here, and give him a super-tight 31-30 split his way. He would pick up 61 delegates on the night, she would pick up 55, giving her a 1,771-1,494 lead in pledged delegates, and 2,295 total delegates to his 1,534. 

Even if Sanders does better, Clinton will both cross 2,026 pledged delegates (a majority) and 2,383 total delegates on June 7th, thanks to her strong lead in New Jersey and assured pick-up of 200 delegates in California alone. In other words, this comes back to what I've been saying- it's the MATH. Bernie Sanders can't possibly catch her. He would have to beat her by at least 40% in California. Let me know how that goes for him. Oh, and New Jersey's 126 are going to be lopsided for her.

On the Republican side, the race is boring. Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee, and he is just 103 delegates from clinching, and should get there with ease now that he has no opponents. Assuming wins like last week in West Virginia, Trump will also clinch the nomination on June 7th. If the "Never Trump" folks inside the GOP want to stop Trump from the Presidency, their options now are Hillary or some other brilliant idea they cook up fast.