Soon, this will all end. Hillary Clinton is going to be the nominee of the Democratic Party. She has 1,682 pledged delegates so far, just 344 short of a majority. If she just continues to run, she will reach that number. With 931 remaining pledged delegates out there, she needs literally only a little more than a third of the remainder. Long before she even gets to that point, she will have crossed 2,383 total delegates though, because the super-delegates have chosen her. That will not change. Bernie cannot catch her under proportional delegate allocation rules that govern the Democratic Party, so he will not win the elected delegate count, which means there is zero chance any super-delegates switch to his side. He can talk all day about a "contested convention," but a convention is not contested if the outcome is assured. He can win every primary still out there, and he'll still come up short. I can't state this enough different ways- Hillary won this nomination. If all the super-delegates were forced to follow their voters, she still won easily, and frankly any other way you try to warp the rules, she won.
So with that in mind, it's time for Bernie voters to begin considering how they will react. What does he, and they, want? If it's simply "give us the nomination," then the answer is no, and will be no in July too. If it's major process changes to the nomination in the future, he may have a chance with getting super-delegates diminished in the process, but that's it. If it's platform points and a speaking slot- yeah, Bernie's probably going to be able to get that. The careful line he has to walk is that the same delegates who are nominating her are also voting on these other matters- so he could also get nothing if he overplays his hand. Given how well he's done, that would be a shame.
Of course, the alternative is true- he and his supporters could withhold their support from Hillary Clinton. That may (and I stress may) cost her the election in November, which obviously would hurt her. It's not a guarantee that this would work, or frankly has any organizational possibility, but it is the highest form of leverage they have. If Bernie supporters wrote him in, or voted for Jill Stein, or even voted for Trump, we could indeed have a repeat of the 2000 election. That's actually possible. We all know what that cost us though.
The stakes we face in 2016 are without recent equivalent. A man who has run a white-nationalist campaign, vowing to ban Muslims from our nation and build a Berlin Wall style fence could be our President. A man who has insulted POW's, women, Muslims, Hispanics, and African-Americans, to name a few, is the Republican nominee. Donald Trump has run the most bigoted campaign in recent memory, while not really breaking from Republican orthodoxy as much as you think. He is a terrifying candidate for President.
There are always hurt feelings at the end of an election. Someone has to lose. If you're comfortable with the possibility of Trump, so be it, then don't vote for Hillary. That's your call.
She is not going to win. http://www.feelthemath.org/
ReplyDeleteThanks for your gross distortions and anti-democratic rhetoric. This must be your calling card. Uber delegates don't count until the convention. The contest is far from over. Let the games continue...as your candidate insisted in 2008. See you in Philly.
ReplyDeleteDeny all you want- if he doesn't win the pledged delegate count, there's a less than zero chance of him winning at the convention. He's not going to win the pledged delegate count. The contest is over, he can win every remaining primary, he will not be our nominee.
ReplyDeleteNeither Bernie or Clinton is going to come to the convention with enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination.
ReplyDeleteThis will come down to the Uber delegates at the convention who will have a difficult choice to make.
Most of them gave away their votes (and their integrity) to the establishment party hierarchy and their corporate paymasters as early as last September.
That was before it became obvious that the era of those party bosses was on it's way out. The DNC is not the Democratic party. Voters are powerfully showing their rejection of their high handed manipulation and disregard for party rank and file voters.
The Uber delegates, if they are smart, will right about now be weighing a suicidal loyalty to that sinking establishment ship and salvaging some kind of future for the party.
Clinton's current lead comes largely if not completely from early voting southern states who come the general election will never deliver a single electoral vote to the party. Some of Bernie's supporters will hold their noses and vote for Hillary. Many will never. Her nomination will mean a disillusioned and disenfranchised base who will not come out for her in November. Add to that the Independents who make up 40% of voters today. They will not support her either. The only voting block candidate Clinton will energize will be Republicans who will flock to the polls to vote against her.
Every poll out there is telling us the same thing. Bernie Sanders is the best hope for a Democratic victory. I would not rule out the strong possibility that there will be more than enough Uber delegates smart enough to do the right thing to save their own asses and the party's.
Bernie is doing well in polls because he has no shot in hell of being the nominee, so no one is attacking him. The Republican Party would destroy Bernie in a general election. Guy, Bernie has less votes and less delegates. We are not going to nominate the person with less delegates and votes. You can kick and scream and threaten to not vote for Hillary, if you'd like. That will just get you President Trump. If you're fine with that, by all means. I won't think the different of anyone for that.
ReplyDeleteYour complaint about the DNC is ridiculous too. I couldn't disagree more with your characterization about the Democratic Party's members and electeds. We have many fine elected officials, and they are choosing Hillary Clinton. I'm proud of them.
I know you've pledged to never vote for her at the convention, which is fine, you got elected by an electorate. Just know that many of us would never stand for a candidate who got less votes and delegates stealing our nomination simply because his supporters refuse to accept the will of the Democratic voters.