The Democratic Nomination Update- California Doesn't Matter

A week from tonight is the California Primary- or as Senator Sanders calls it, "the whole enchilada." While that sentiment might make sense if you watch cable news, the truth is that California's winner or loser won't matter much. As a matter of fact, if Senator Sanders doesn't exceed expectations by a lot in New Jersey, she will probably clinch the presumptive nomination before voting closes in California.

To the current tally:

• Hillary Clinton- 1,769 pledged delegates, 543 unpledged delegates, 2,312 TOTAL DELEGATES
• Bernie Sanders- 1,501 pledged delegates, 44 unpledged delegates, 1,545 TOTAL DELEGATES

To win the nomination, 2,383 total delegates are needed. To win the majority of the pledged delegates, 2,026 are needed. Remaining on the map are:

• Virgin Islands- June 4th- 7 pledged delegates, 5 unpledged
• Puerto Rico- June 5th- 60 pledged delegates, 7 unpledged
• New Jersey- June 7th- 126 pledged delegates, 16 unpledged
• North Dakota- June 7th- 18 pledged delegates, 5 unpledged
• South Dakota- June 7th- 20 pledged delegates, 5 unpledged
• New Mexico- June 7th- 34 pledged delegates, 9 unpledged
• Montana- June 7th- 21 pledged delegates, 6 unpledged
• California- June 7th- 475 pledged delegates, 71 unpledged
• Washington, DC- June 14th- 20 pledged delegates, 25 unpledged

There are a remaining 781 pledged delegates. Clinton needs 257 more delegates to win the majority of the pledged delegates, making her the choice of the voters, which is 32.9% of the vote. Given that New Jersey polling puts her way ahead, and California gives her a tiny lead, and proportional in their delegates,  she is going to top that easily. That's even conceding that she doesn't blow him out in California. If she gets half of those delegates from those two states (300), and just 30 percent of all the others- a huge, huge stretch of the imagination- she ends up with 360 delegates, or 103 more than she needs. I see this as virtually her floor. In other words, you can expect her to walk away with 2,129 total pledged delegates- minimally. 

That number puts her narrowly shy, 254 delegates, of the nomination. Fortunately for her, she already has 543 unpledged delegates backing her, and presumably the oncoming endorsement of the President and others. Given that she is actually at 2,312 delegates right now, another 360 means she will reach 2,672 delegates. That comfortably makes her the nominee. It also means she clinches the nomination when New Jersey is called, basically. Assuming she will win at least 30 more delegates in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, she will need just 41 more delegates, a number she is assured basically when New Jersey's polls close, even if she lost a stunning collapse.

In other words, despite the cool coverage of Bernie having rallies or going to Golden State Warriors games, or despite debates about debates, there's a simple truth to all of this- it's the math. Hillary Clinton will both win the majority of our elected delegates and the majority of our delegates on the night of June 7th, around 8 pm, when New Jersey's polls close.

Have fun watching cable news.