Trump Surging? Not So Much

Republicans fall in line, not in love. I want you to remember that as you watch the polls in the coming weeks and months, and act surprised that Donald Trump isn't losing by 15-20% in them against Hillary Clinton. Every time you hear how she's surprisingly weak against him, or how Bernie would do better remember what I said. Of course she's not doing better than Bernie, she's actually a candidate for the general election. Of course Trump is close or even leading some polls, he's the Republican nominee.

Look, eight years ago at this time, Hillary was doing better than President Obama in general election polls. When you're not going to win, you're being attacked less, and you do better. It's really not hard to figure out. Much as the Republicans would have attacked Hillary with every vicious lie that they are now in 2008, Republicans would turn on a dime and utterly decimate Bernie Sanders if he were the nominee. There's lots to attack, and i'm not even talking about calling him a socialist, though i'm sure they'd turn him into some combination of Mao, Castro, and Stalin by November. To be polite, Bernie is benefitting from less than full coverage. I think his Senate Chairmanship of the committee that oversees the Department of Veteran Affairs from 2013-2015 alone would disqualify him in the general election. Of course he polls well right now- because he isn't going to win. That is the main point. The person who is going to lose, always looks better at the end of the process.

So with that out of the way, let's talk about Trump's "surge." When he initially became the presumptive Republican nominee, Hillary Clinton had a double digit lead on him. Now he's tied or leading in many polls, causing a lot of people to grow concerned about her in the general election. We're a far cry from when most of the articles were talking about his bad map. Clearly this is bad for Democrats, right?

No. After winning the GOP nomination in 2008, John McCain enjoyed a good Spring in the polls. Mitt Romney did very well about now in 2012, after clinching the GOP nomination. What did I say in the first line of this article? All of this is just the GOP base-consolidating behind Trump. To be clear, i'm not saying Hillary Clinton is a stone-cold lock, or that she'll have a ten point lead in a month. Not at all. I'm saying the current polling is a product of formerly skeptical Republicans decided that Donald Trump is superior to Hillary Clinton amongst their choices. This is to be expected- they are Republicans. Coming in around 46% is also quite consistent with where ultimately McCain and Romney came in as well. The only recent Republican to do better than that in a general election was George W. Bush. Trump continues to suffer from all of the problems that Romney and McCain did in the last two elections against President Obama- bad polling numbers amongst African-Americans, Asians, Latinos, Women, Youth, and all other non-old, white, and male groups. You cannot win a national election just winning white people. Not in 2016. That day in American politics has come and gone.

I guess this is as good of a time as any to address the "Bernie or Bust" worries though. While no one is as annoyed as me at these people, it is worth noting that I don't think they are the end of the world that we treat them as. For one, about 66% of Sanders national support says they will back Clinton in the general election, a number that is in line with where Clinton supporters were with President Obama at this point in 2008. In the end, the overwhelming majority of the holdouts came around to the President, and there is no compelling reason right now to believe that won't happen. Some will not, but I'd also wager a guess that most of those voters have not been past Democrats. Do I like that this process goes on and continues to be nasty and divisive? No. However, in the end I believe she will get 85% or more of the Sanders support in the general. If i'm right, it will be enough. The real hardcore "Bernie or Bust" people will make their point, and that's fine. They can embrace their privilege of choice any way they'd like.

Now, none of this means i'm saying Hillary is in the clear. She has high negatives, and that's not being helped by this primary fight. Unlike President Obama in 2008, she is underwater with independents. She will have a tough time winning this race, and it probably will look more like 2012 than 2008. Could she end up as our generation's George H.W. Bush, winning a third term for her party in a landslide? Sure. She could lose too though, even though I doubt it. My point is that she's in for a fight.

Back to the main point at the beginning though- Republicans fall in line, not in love. Donald Trump is their nominee now. They hate Hillary. This isn't hard for them. Trump isn't really "surging" by picking up Romney and McCain voters. He needs a lot more than that to win. He's simply consolidating his base, something Clinton has not done yet.