Despite a Fun Start, the Phillies Aren't Good Enough to be Buyers

I've had as much fun as many Phillies fans, watching a rag-tag, low-expectations group hang in the thick of the NL East's standings into late May. Let's be clear though- they're not contenders. If their current four game losing streak isn't enough proof that they aren't a playoff team, I'm sure at some point you'll have enough. They aren't nearly as bad as last year's 99 loss team, but they aren't so much better than 63 wins that we can start considering them a better than 85 win team.

The Phillies problems that will keep them from contending are numerous- their offense is terrible, their defense is improved but flawed, their bullpen is far from proven, and they have no current ace in their rotation. This is not to say that the team stinks, or that there won't be some good stories by the end of the season. This team will improve. They just aren't going to contend for the playoffs. In a league with five playoff spots, they are not in the same league as the Cubs, Nats, Mets, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers, or Cardinals. That's seven. We can stop the contention discussion right there.

Which leads me to the discussion of what the Phillies should do this Summer. Some fans are very worried about short-term moves. Should the Phillies trade for a Jay Bruce or Nick Markakis? Should they cut Ryan Howard? I'm not all that concerned, because none of these moves matter all that much to the final outcome of the 2016 Phillies. I'm not worried as much about wins and losses this season. In fact, even when they were sitting in playoff position, I only bumped my win goal from 67 to 75.

From what I can tell, their future team will mostly arrive by Opening Day of 2017. If we were a year ahead of now, I might have a different feeling, but for now I would like to see them mostly stand pat. If there's an affordable alternative to a failing major leaguer, i'm all ears, but i'm not ready to trade any high ranking prospect to marginally improve this team.