An Indiana Primary Primer

Tonight's Indiana Primary could prove to be basically decisive in the race for both party nominations. Wins by Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would just further drive home the reality- these races are over. There is no way that Bernie Sanders, Ted Cruz, or John Kasich can win their nominations within the electoral process, and there's virtually no shot the party elders will help them actually win it on second or third ballots.

First, the Democratic scoreboard:

• Pledged Delegate Count- Hillary Clinton 1,645 Bernie Sanders 1,318 (Clinton +327, needs 381 to clinch majority)
• Super Delegate Count- Clinton 520 Sanders 39 (Clinton +481, become official at convention)
• Total- Hillary Clinton 2,165 Bernie Sanders 1,357 (Clinton +808, needs 218 to win nomination)

So basically, at this point Clinton can sit on autopilot and reach both 2,026 pledged delegates (a majority) and 2,383 to win the nomination. There are 83 delegates on the line tonight, and my expectation is that both candidates are likely to get about 40 of them just for showing up. The polls show a close lead for Clinton at this time, though the Bernie supporters probably are working harder out of necessity. The odds say right now though that Clinton walks away with a 42 or 43 delegate night, and Bernie with 40 or 41. Sanders needs to reach 1,600 to force platform items that he wants.

Now, the GOP scoreboard:

• Donald Trump 996 Ted Cruz 565 John Kasich 153

At this point, Cruz and Kasich are no more relevant than Marco Rubio (who still has a 19 delegate lead on Kasich), and will not be the Republican nominee, even if Trump falls short of 1,237 that he needs.There are 57 delegates at stake tonight, and Trump is going to take home the lion's share of them after a disaster of a week for Ted Cruz and his "running-mate" Carly Fiorina. The winner will get 30, and the rest will be split by Congressional districts, giving Trump a fighting chance at getting close to all 57. I expect a split in the neighborhood of 50-7. Trump will be under 200 delegates away if that happens, and this race will be even more ridiculous than it already is. IF Donald Trump falls short of 1,237 delegates, he will come very, very close, and none of his current opponents will even have a halfway plausible argument. 

Neither party has an actual race going on at this point. They both have presumptive nominees, and if they fall short of the number of delegates needed, their establishments would have to choose whether to help them get there, or to pick someone else out. Neither party would pick the guys losing right now, under that scenario. In other words, the races are over.