Even still, I don't think this team is as far away as people think. Much of the rebuild is actually in place already, most of the 2008 championship team is gone, and there is lots of money available in the future to get the free agents they need. The Phillies could start being good in 2017, if you ask me.
When will the pieces be in place? Here's my position by position look at the future of the Phillies.
Starting Rotation-
So, any rebuild starts here. The good news? The Phillies have three young arms that are already excelling. In Vince Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff, and Aaron Nola, the Phillies have 60% of a future rotation, assuming these are all top five arms in the system. In AAA, Mark Appel is looking as good as he was supposed to when he was the #1 pick several years back, posting a sub-2.00 ERA so far. Zach Eflin is also dominating in AAA, and Jake Thompson has been steadily improving there. All three prospects have high ceilings and time to reach them. Alec Asher has just gotten back there, and is off to a great start as well. AA promises similar talent, with Ben Lively dominating and Ricardo Pinto arriving there to challenge the other prospects. The Phillies have more than enough young, talented arms. The 2017 rotation should be absolutely stacked. In fact, this may be an area of depth that eventually helps the Phillies trade for talent at other areas of need.
Catcher-
Andrew Knapp or Jorge Alfaro? Do you want lobster or steak tonight? One of these two will be the Phillies starting catcher, probably in 2017. The other will have a plus bat that the Phillies can move around. The situation is not bad behind the plate.
First Base-
As Ryan Howard continues his farewell tour with the Phillies, the future has plenty of options behind him. Darin Ruf's early struggles call into question his long-term viability here, and open the door to those below him. Tommy Joseph has absolutely hit the way the Phillies once hoped, so far this season in AAA. Brock Stassi is not a young prospect, but he hit in AA last season, and could play his way into the picture later this season too. Rhys Hoskins is hitting the ball well in AA, and could arrive next season in the picture. Alfaro and Knapp also are both options at first base moving forward as well. The Phillies will probably have a better read, if not a chosen option, on who is the player of the future here by Opening Day of 2017.
Second Base-
Incumbent Cesar Hernandez has done a reasonably decent job as the Phillies immediate replacement for Chase Utley. There is still 130 plus games of this season though to see if he's a long-term option. He has certainly hit for decent average in the big leagues, but has to fine tune other areas of his game to make it. If he doesn't, Odubel Herrera could move back here and be the future at this position, as his offensive game is already plus for this position in the majors. Freddy Galvis could end up over here as well, though his bat has not been as impressive as the other two. There are already MLB options here.
The minors do offer options here. Darnell Sweeney is not likely the next starter, but is not out of the race. Scott Kingery, in Clearwater right now, is the brightest prospect of this bunch, but also has not excelled yet at a level where you're clearing the path for him. His teammate, shortstop Malquin Canelo could get a look here, but he'll have to hit a lot more to get a chance. Jesmuel Valentin, in AA, will need a good year to get back into the organization's good graces, but still has a shot too. I suspect this position will be settled by the end of 2017, at the latest.
Shortstop-
I suspect that late in this Summer, we will finally see J.P. Crawford. After that, the position will be his. Much like catcher and first base, I suspect shortstop to be settled moving forward.
Third Base-
Maikel Franco is here. This position is filled.
Outfield-
Odubel Herrera is probably the only MLB option in the current outfield, though I won't count Tyler Goeddel out too early. Beyond that, you have to look to the minors for options. Nick Williams and Roman Quinn are the popular options, and both have shown enough in the past to back that up. Dylan Cozens might be the best athlete in the system, and he's in AA. Players like Carlos Tocci are probably a little further away. Cam Perkins is showing something right now in AAA, and could get a look this Summer.
The Bench and Bullpen-
Whether you prefer Tom Windle or Edubray Ramos, whether you like Jimmy Cordero or Colton Murray, the good news is that the Phillies system has relief arms a plenty to consider. That is the case even before you consider moving some of the plentiful starting arms into bullpen roles because of a lack of space. The Phillies should be able to fill most of their bullpen in house, including with some of their current relievers who are excelling. This is not a big worry in this team's rebuild.
As for the bench, I think much of the same is true. Darnell Sweeney, Tyler Goeddel, and players like Brock Stassi could play a role in the future make up of a bench. The Phillies should hang onto Andres Blanco for a bit (unless a great trade comes up), and allow him to play a leadership role with this group. This, like the bullpen, should be an easy area to improve when the time comes.
The Bottom Line-
Even with their good start, I don't see the Phillies contending for a playoff spot in 2016. I see a 2017 squad that has the pieces in place to build our next winning core, and a team that can contend. I think my expectations of being a playoff team don't really arrive until 2018 though. The idea in 2016 should remain that we build an improving team, and that our 2017 group starts looking like a future that is arriving. In 2018, I suspect we'll be a consistent winner again.
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