The problem that Donald Trump has is that even if he meets the benchmarks needed from Romney amongst whites to win, that might not do it. You see, the non-white share of the electorate in 2012 was 28%. There is a very good chance that the 2016 electorate will be close to 30% non-white. President Obama won 80% of this vote against Mitt Romney in 2012. Mitt didn't spend his primary insulting Latinos, calling for a ban on Muslims, saying President Obama was born in Kenya, putting down female reporters, or generally insulting every group but white men. Given Trump's divisive nature with minorities, it is fair to assume that the non-white vote will grow (as it has been, almost uninterrupted since 1980), and that Trump may very well do worse than Mitt Romney did losing 80%.
My guess is that Donald Trump will not get absolutely crushed in November the way that polls currently show. I hope and believe it's possible that he will do worse among white voters than Mitt Romney did, but I think it's more likely he's back around 60% of the white vote in the end. I also don't think that's good enough. In the end, I don't see how nominating someone who doubles down on a "whites first" political strategy will change any of the demographic problems the Republicans had in 2008 and 2012. That seems to be more of a "head in the sand" strategy than a bow to reality. There are some Democrats who don't agree with me, and think Hillary has to stop the bleeding amongst white voters, but frankly I think staying right on her current path means 300 plus electoral votes.
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