The Democratic Nomination Update- California Doesn't Matter

A week from tonight is the California Primary- or as Senator Sanders calls it, "the whole enchilada." While that sentiment might make sense if you watch cable news, the truth is that California's winner or loser won't matter much. As a matter of fact, if Senator Sanders doesn't exceed expectations by a lot in New Jersey, she will probably clinch the presumptive nomination before voting closes in California.

To the current tally:

• Hillary Clinton- 1,769 pledged delegates, 543 unpledged delegates, 2,312 TOTAL DELEGATES
• Bernie Sanders- 1,501 pledged delegates, 44 unpledged delegates, 1,545 TOTAL DELEGATES

To win the nomination, 2,383 total delegates are needed. To win the majority of the pledged delegates, 2,026 are needed. Remaining on the map are:

• Virgin Islands- June 4th- 7 pledged delegates, 5 unpledged
• Puerto Rico- June 5th- 60 pledged delegates, 7 unpledged
• New Jersey- June 7th- 126 pledged delegates, 16 unpledged
• North Dakota- June 7th- 18 pledged delegates, 5 unpledged
• South Dakota- June 7th- 20 pledged delegates, 5 unpledged
• New Mexico- June 7th- 34 pledged delegates, 9 unpledged
• Montana- June 7th- 21 pledged delegates, 6 unpledged
• California- June 7th- 475 pledged delegates, 71 unpledged
• Washington, DC- June 14th- 20 pledged delegates, 25 unpledged

There are a remaining 781 pledged delegates. Clinton needs 257 more delegates to win the majority of the pledged delegates, making her the choice of the voters, which is 32.9% of the vote. Given that New Jersey polling puts her way ahead, and California gives her a tiny lead, and proportional in their delegates,  she is going to top that easily. That's even conceding that she doesn't blow him out in California. If she gets half of those delegates from those two states (300), and just 30 percent of all the others- a huge, huge stretch of the imagination- she ends up with 360 delegates, or 103 more than she needs. I see this as virtually her floor. In other words, you can expect her to walk away with 2,129 total pledged delegates- minimally. 

That number puts her narrowly shy, 254 delegates, of the nomination. Fortunately for her, she already has 543 unpledged delegates backing her, and presumably the oncoming endorsement of the President and others. Given that she is actually at 2,312 delegates right now, another 360 means she will reach 2,672 delegates. That comfortably makes her the nominee. It also means she clinches the nomination when New Jersey is called, basically. Assuming she will win at least 30 more delegates in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, she will need just 41 more delegates, a number she is assured basically when New Jersey's polls close, even if she lost a stunning collapse.

In other words, despite the cool coverage of Bernie having rallies or going to Golden State Warriors games, or despite debates about debates, there's a simple truth to all of this- it's the math. Hillary Clinton will both win the majority of our elected delegates and the majority of our delegates on the night of June 7th, around 8 pm, when New Jersey's polls close.

Have fun watching cable news.

Congress is Lazy

I'm not a fan of Congressman Massie or Republicans in general, but this is worth your read:

The House is supposed to have something called a “quorum” to have a vote. A quorum is defined by at least 218 congressmen. The way that Boehner decides if there is a quorum is by squinting his eyes and declaring he thinks he sees 218 people. Congressman Massie said sometimes there will only be ten congressmen present.

There are about 500 yards in between Massie’s office and the house floor. When the speaker starts to do voice votes when no one is in the house, Congressman Massie will sprint from his office to the House floor and demand a recorded vote. When Congress has a recorded vote, it forces there to be a quorum and politicians to be held accountable for their votes. Massie said that he had done this a lot since he was elected in 2012.

One of the most memorable votes was in December of 2014. The speaker indicated that the Congress was over, so all the congressmen left. It just so happened that Massie’s flight had been canceled, when he went back to his office he saw that the house was passing bills with no one present. He made the 500-yard dash, and when he got onto the house floor they were conducting a voice vote on whether or not to allow President Obama to arm Ukraine’s military. They recessed before he could make a point that a quorum was not present. The next day, after he left, they passed more bills by voice before adjourning the 113th congress.

While I don't agree with the Congressman's views on legislation, I do agree that Congress should operate under some level of honesty. They should have a quorum. They should not have voice votes on matters beyond naming post offices. They should be accountable for their record.

It's Democracy, Stupid- Time for Primaries

I think most Democrats, in their ideals, think more people should vote. They think voting should be easy. They think that the system we use should be conducive to getting a result that the majority of Democrats want in our nomination process. They think that the actual votes should decide our nomination.

Now I lived and worked on an Iowa Caucus, and I can tell you that I have full confidence in their system. Iowa's not a big state, and yet they have six-figure turnout on the regular for the Democratic caucuses. It works there. They are an outlier. In Nevada, Clinton won cleanly on the day of the caucuses, but was behind after county conventions, and then won at the state convention. That's a hair-pulling system if I've seen one. These caucuses just offer far too many variables in many of these states, some of whom show they just aren't capable of managing it.

Worse yet, the caucuses produce an unnatural result. In both Nebraska and Washington, the winner of the caucus was clearly and decisively Bernie Sanders, and then he cleanly lost in the non-binding primaries later. The caucus results don't really match the overall will of the Democratic voters, many more of whom showed up for the non-binding primary, but over-sample the passionate activists who are willing and able to come sit through a caucus. While i'm sure some of them won't like this, I think it's a lot more important to get the "common man's" view than the most loud and passionate types, some of whom are frankly living in an alternative reality. We don't need a "nominee of the privileged."

The Democratic Party is a party of working class people, people who often times are unable to get to a caucus. The primary system allows a lot more flexibility about voting than most caucuses do. The question of opened or closed primaries, while I 100% support closed primaries for Democratic voters, is secondary to having a system where our voters can all have a voice. It gets more "real" results and tells us the will of the public. Move to primaries, push for more early voting systems and easier absentee voting, and make sure that our Democratic voters can all have a say in picking the nominee of the Democratic Party. It's Democracy, stupid.

Why Can't I Cheer for the Pittsburgh Penguins?

I've said this before- I love the city of Pittsburgh. It's a beautiful town, and most of the people you'll meet are nice. It's clean. The stadium are nice. The food is good. I like Pittsburgh a lot.

I do not like the Pittsburgh Penguins though, and it's not just because they are a rival of the Flyers. In fact, that didn't stop me from enjoying Jaromir Jagr or Mario Lemieux on their squad at one time, or enjoying Evgeni Malkin. The Penguins have been a first tier franchise for much of my life, and my hate for them is only a last ten years thing. How can that be?

Sidney Crosby.

I hate the best diver in hockey. I dislike everything about him, for whatever reason. I hated him even worse after his Olympic winning goal in overtime against the U.S. a few years ago. I hated when he knocked us out of the playoffs a few times. I hated him even worse when we knocked him out of the playoffs. He's joined the Jose Reyes club of athletes I just can't come around on. No matter how fun watching them is, I can't be a fan. Sidney is the worst in hockey for me. I'll never be able to cheer for him.

So, I guess, go Sharks? I doubt it though.

Despite a Fun Start, the Phillies Aren't Good Enough to be Buyers

I've had as much fun as many Phillies fans, watching a rag-tag, low-expectations group hang in the thick of the NL East's standings into late May. Let's be clear though- they're not contenders. If their current four game losing streak isn't enough proof that they aren't a playoff team, I'm sure at some point you'll have enough. They aren't nearly as bad as last year's 99 loss team, but they aren't so much better than 63 wins that we can start considering them a better than 85 win team.

The Phillies problems that will keep them from contending are numerous- their offense is terrible, their defense is improved but flawed, their bullpen is far from proven, and they have no current ace in their rotation. This is not to say that the team stinks, or that there won't be some good stories by the end of the season. This team will improve. They just aren't going to contend for the playoffs. In a league with five playoff spots, they are not in the same league as the Cubs, Nats, Mets, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers, or Cardinals. That's seven. We can stop the contention discussion right there.

Which leads me to the discussion of what the Phillies should do this Summer. Some fans are very worried about short-term moves. Should the Phillies trade for a Jay Bruce or Nick Markakis? Should they cut Ryan Howard? I'm not all that concerned, because none of these moves matter all that much to the final outcome of the 2016 Phillies. I'm not worried as much about wins and losses this season. In fact, even when they were sitting in playoff position, I only bumped my win goal from 67 to 75.

From what I can tell, their future team will mostly arrive by Opening Day of 2017. If we were a year ahead of now, I might have a different feeling, but for now I would like to see them mostly stand pat. If there's an affordable alternative to a failing major leaguer, i'm all ears, but i'm not ready to trade any high ranking prospect to marginally improve this team.

When Poor Media Behavior Has Consequences

I can accept someone picking Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton in a primary. Both hold solidly left-of-center positions. Both would be better Presidents than the people who ran as Republicans. I can totally accept that people on both sides will try to draw contrasts, even ones I hate- so immigration votes, votes on the Iraq War, votes on reigning in gun manufacturers, and votes on trade deals are all fair game. It's an election- we all need thick enough skin to take some hits. In the end, the person who won more delegates should be our nominee. That's how things go. That person is the stronger candidate for November, because that person has shown they can get votes.

What I can't take is lying to your supporters. I can take embellishing facts. I can't take using right-wing talking points to try and score political points by pushing lies. I'm not for any of that. I won't start being for it either, regardless who wins. I've watched H.A. Goodman try and argue that Hillary will go to jail, handing the nomination to Bernie Sanders in July. I've watched Seth Abramson argue that Bernie is actually winning, when he is actually losing at the ballot box. Worst of all, i've watched Shaun King shamelessly say people should quit the party because he's not getting his way.

There are consequences to the outright lies of these people. Supporters of Bernie Sanders believe them. They believe they are being robbed. They believe they are being lied to. They are being lied to of course, but only by the people who are telling them what they want to hear. We have a process- he didn't get as many votes. She will win the nomination therefore, and they are better off if she wins. Responsible people tell their readers the truth and deal with the consequences. Irresponsible yahoos that shouldn't get printed lie to their readers for some clickbait, and look to advance their careers at the expense of America. These guys are embarrassments to their candidate, and our political process. Their behavior has the potential to alter the behavior of a portion of the public, which could hurt a lot of people. It's despicable.

Doing Right By Our Veterans

I would never speak ill of charities that exist to help America's veterans. They do great and necessary work. Of course, what I would speak ill of is their need to exist. One would think that a nation that is quick to support wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, or anywhere else on the globe, would also be quick to want to live up to it's obligation to take care of those who fight the wars. I think that if you asked the public, probably something like eight or nine out of ten people would agree with that statement. Then the people we elect to run our country don't typically quite live up to those ideals.

I don't want to get into a political battle over the care of veterans- we shouldn't. I will credit this President and his White House for increases in investment in the VA system, as well as the First Lady and Mrs. Biden focusing so much of their time helping raise money and awareness for causes that help our military families. I will also criticize this administration for major mismanagement at the Veterans Administration under the former Secretary. I will criticize our current Secretary of the VA for saying that if "Disney Land doesn't measure wait times why should we?" To be fair, no less than the great Bob Dole does sing Secretary McDonald's praises right now, so he must be doing something very right. Even so, I often think that all administrations don't keep their eye on the ball at the VA- it's not as political of a department as most of the cabinet posts. There's less in the ideology of either party to accomplish.

Ten years ago, my grandfather passed on. He was a veteran of the Korean War, and was getting many of his cancer drugs through the VA. He got pretty good service, on the whole. In the decade since though, veterans issues have exploded, mostly due to quantity. With so many young men coming back from our recent wars with issues, and so many Vietnam era vets now reaching the age of needing services, we've seen an explosion of problems. Wait times at VA hospitals, veteran homelessness and joblessness are growing, and issues re-integrating many veterans on campuses, in the work place, and in their family lives are just some of the issues we are facing now as a nation. Even with non-profit help, the nation struggles to meet it's obligations.

Here are but a few solutions to a few problems that veterans face, which I feel we can address with the political will to do it:

1. Veteran Unemployment- One problem which we can solve with tools we have is the difficulty some veterans have finding employment once back in the states. The creation of a program that takes active duty military personnel and trains them at the time of discharge to take jobs working within the VA would provide a pipeline of jobs for skilled workers coming out of the military. Similar programs could be set up with building trades unions, putting military personnel directly into apprenticeship programs as electricians, mechanics, and other skilled trades jobs. Many veterans come out of the service with enough training to go directly into some of these labor jobs, and to excel in them. I'm not saying to do this at the expense of programs that help veterans get into college- that's important too- but rather by offering tax incentives to employers who participate and offer opportunity for these veterans.
2. Suicide Prevention and PTSD- The VA, Substance Abuse Mental Health Services Administration, and the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention have partnered to create a program called "Partners in Care," which takes National Guard Chaplains in five states helped to train over 400 faith leaders in suicide prevention techniques, and then coordinated services with them to help National Guard members and their families cope with issues they faced. This program could be copied at a national level. While we do not know enough about PTSD yet, we do know the problem is worse than ever coming out of our last decade plus of war. Congress should and must increase funding for studies on this issue to allow many pilot studies and treatment programs to continue and expand in the coming years. While we often hear about mental health program expansion in connection to guns, a nation with such a large current veteran population should also expand these services to help make life easier for those veterans.
3. Veteran Homelessness- Unfortunately, homeless veterans make up 10% of our homeless populations. At the point of discharge, the military should make veterans aware of grants and opportunities available to them to find housing. Congress should also create a special housing assistance program providing vouchers to cover some portion of cost of living for veterans as they move home. Nationally, we should also seek to create more affordable housing in areas near military installations, so that those leaving can quickly find affordable, adequate housing. Of course, one of the major issues that face many of these homeless veterans is mental health issues, so this goes along with expansion of services in #2. 
4. Access to VA Medical Care- In many parts of the country, travel is a real restriction to a veteran getting service from a VA hospital. Allowing all public hospitals to treat veterans under the VA's jurisdiction would increase access to care for millions of veterans living in less densely populated areas.
5. Veterans Courts- When veterans get into legal troubles, they often have issues that are directly tied to their service, such as mental health issues and substance abuse issues. We often times create specialty courts in this country, such as family courts, domestic violence courts, drug addiction courts, and others, courts that are supposed to specialize in adjudicating a fair response, one that is both fair to victims but also helps the accused deal with the issues they face. A court that deals with veterans using an understanding of their issues and how to treat them under their circumstances would provide better outcomes for society. The point of the criminal justice system is supposed to be healing, and a veterans' court could insure that veterans both get justice, and the help they need.

I used to live next to Arlington National Cemetery when I was in the DC area. In the morning I'd walk by/through the cemetery and admire it- it is stunningly beautiful to look at. You can visit some of the famous graves and get caught up in the hype pretty easily. I had to remind myself each day that it's actually not a nice place for most of the people who come there to use the services. It's a place where people go and anguish at the loss of loved ones. It's a beautiful, sacred piece of land to our country. It's not always beautiful and sacred to the people who come there. There are literally thousands of grave markers within it. The thing we often lose track of though is that there are so many more soldiers who live- and we don't often do well enough by them. We should concentrate better on them.

No, Hillary is Not Like Trump

From the great, and too often right, Bernie Sanders-supporting former Labor Secretary under President Clinton, Robert Reich's well-written piece on what's next for Democrats supporting both Clinton and Sanders:

Which brings me to those of you who say there’s no real difference between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

That’s just plain wrong. Trump has revealed himself to be a narcissistic, xenophobic, hatemonger who, if elected, would legitimize bigotry, appoint Supreme Court justices with terrible values, and have direct access to the button that could set off a nuclear war.

Hillary may not possess Bernie Sanders’s indignation about the rigging of our economy and democracy, or be willing to go as far in remedying it, but she’s shown herself a capable and responsible leader.

Some of you agree a Trump presidency would be a disaster but claim it would galvanize a forceful progressive movement in response.

That’s unlikely. Rarely if ever in history has a sharp swing to the right moved the political pendulum further back in the opposite direction. Instead, it tends to move the “center” rightward, as did Ronald Reagan’s presidency.

Besides, Trump could do huge and unalterable damage to America and the world in the meantime.

Finally, some of you say even if Hillary is better than Trump, you’re tired of choosing the “lesser of two evils,” and you’re going to vote your conscience by either writing Bernie’s name in, or voting for the Green Party candidate, or not voting at all.

I can’t criticize anyone for voting their conscience, of course. But your conscience should know that a decision not to vote for Hillary, should she become the Democratic nominee, is a de facto decision to help Donald Trump.

I have nothing to add to that which would make it any better.

Few Games are as Defining as This- Oklahoma City HAS to Win Tonight

Ugly. There's no other way to describe Saturday night's loss on their home court for Oklahoma City. They needed one more win to put away the 73 win Golden State Warriors, a team they had exposed all series. They lead all night. It was a home game for God's sakes. They simply fell apart. Their two superstars, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook disappeared down the stretch. It was basically the nightmare scenario.

There is a very real case to be made that Kevin Durant's last game in Oklahoma City might have been Saturday night's disaster. If that happens to be the case, the legacy of he and Westbrook's dynamic duo is heading the way of Stockton and Malone, a great duo that never won. Worse yet, he personally looked terrible at the end of the last two games, which should (but won't) give some pause to a GM in another city, trying to build a winner. That's not the way he wants to go out.

Fortunately for OKC, they get to play a game seven tonight in Oakland. I fully expect Golden State to run them out of the building after they failed to close out a sure win on Saturday, but they get one more shot at redemption. This literally will define how people view these two superstars, and their very good team. A loss tonight will only redefine everything the way we thought it was a month ago- Golden State can get it done, and this group of Thunder can't.

Happy Memorial Day

Happy Memorial Day! Enjoy the cookouts, the hot dogs, the heat, the pools, the hamburgers, the fireworks, the festivals, the impending thundershowers, and the company of family and friends today!

Also, remember our veterans. We sent a lot of my friends, people my age, into Iraq and Afghanistan. Some of them paid the ultimate sacrifice, and so we remember them on Memorial Day. It's important for a nation to remember their fallen and to take a moment to pause and honor them. Let's not forget the ones who didn't fall though. Some of them gave limbs and physical health for America. Some gave their minds, and battle mental troubles that the rest of us can't imagine. I probably have a half dozen friends currently battling PTSD, some in very obvious and painful ways, and others in total silence, so that many of you don't know when you see it. It makes me sad. Put aside any personal feelings about our wars and foreign policy over the last decade for a moment, these young Americans just volunteered to do a job. They committed to defend this nation, and they did their jobs. Let's not forget them.

Enjoy the cookouts, the family and friends, the nice weather, and the oncoming Summer. Don't forget why we have the holiday though.

Happy Summer

This weekend, if you didn't notice, was the start of the Summer. It was too hot. There were too many cookouts. There was a lot of grilled food. We have now passed the "pleasant Spring" season.

Summer is not my favorite season. It's arguably my least favorite season, but it still has some serious highlights. This Summer we'll be focused in on:

• Baseball. Lots of baseball. 38 more games, hopefully.
• The Olympics. Rio 2016 is coming. Can Usain Bolt three-peat? Can Jordan Burroughs repeat? That's the story.
• The Presidential race and the conventions. Will sanity prevail and make Hillary Clinton President?
• The beach. I love the beach. I really love the beach. Gateway National Park season is coming. I might even lose my sanity and do some of the more touristy beaches.
• Cookouts- I love me some food. I always love me some food.
• Fireworks- I hope to show some live shows on here.
• Workouts- Yes, tomorrow starts "boot camp" season.
• Concerts and festivals. I love live music, especially outdoors.
• Philadelphia's high draft picks- the Phillies and Sixers will pick #1 overall, while #2 overall Eagles pick Carson Wentz will do his first training camp.

All of this, and the personal journey forward.

While celebrating tonight and tomorrow, don't forget the real meaning behind Memorial Day, and the people who made it possible. I want to give a shout out to all of my friends who served this nation admirably and continue to sacrifice here on the home side. We all love you guys.

33 Goals

I have 33 goals at 33 years old-

1. Get my weight to under 200- and then down to 190- I'm at 200.2, the lightest i've been since 2002. I want to get back under 200, and then keep going to 190.
2. Form a band- I want to form a band. I'm back playing the drums, and I want to have a band, a goal I gave up on a long time ago.
3. 50 baseball games in 2016- I'm at twelve games so far this season, and I went to 40 last season. I want to get to 50 professional baseball games.
4. Complete my Masters- A few years ago, I started grad classes. I did well too, held a 3.67 GPA at Penn State. Then I stopped, mostly because of cost/time. I want to finish that.
5. I want to go to the top of the Freedom Tower- I want to "go to the top of the world." I consider this the top of the world.
6. Win Another Election- I want to win another election. Yes, it's a bit addicting. More so, I enjoy the challenge. Beyond that, I think I study government and politics more than most people, and have something to offer the public that most candidates don't. I can only offer that by trying.
7. Run another 5k- The last time I participated in a formal sporting event was May of 2002. I think it's time for me to get back in shape and do one again, just to say I did.
8. Write a book- I want to write a book about my young adult years in politics. I think I have some things to say.
9. See a football game in South Bend- I want to see a Notre Dame home game. 
10. Visit the Vatican- I want to go to Rome in general, but Vatican City is chief on the "to do" list.
11. Drive across America- I always enjoy the ride from Easton, PA to Iowa. It's peaceful, and it shows you many different places. I want to make an even longer ride though- across the country. I want to see the west, and see it at my pace.
12. Bench press 300 pounds again- I want to bench 300 pounds at least one more time in my life.
13. Wrigley Field- I've always wanted to see Wrigley Field, like since I was five or six. I want to see a game there.
14. Come to a religious conclusion- I was raised Byzantine Catholic, and at no point have I become an atheist. I just have strayed away. I would like to be moved back to formal religion at some point in my life. I'm not going to force it, I'll either find it or I won't.
15. Own a home by 40- I never wanted a home, in part because I find it to be a waste of time. However, I am realizing that I'd like to have my own space. Like, more than a studio apartment space. I am in no rush to have a mortgage, but I suppose by 40 that's realistic.
16. Earn the title of Senator- I don't care if we're talking state or federal, the title of Senator is one of the oldest, most respected titles in society. I'd like to earn it.
17. Visit Jerusalem- I want to go see the center of western religion. I don't want to die, so this won't happen soon, but I'd like to see Jerusalem- old and new city.
18. Visit Udol, Slovakia- My great-grandmother was one of the closest people to me in the world up until her death when I was nine. I want to return to the village she left in Slovakia and see it.
19. Become a millionaire- I'd like to achieve that "level" financially some day. This is probably one of the least important goals I have though, because I have no plan of what to do with this money.
20. Attend a shareholder meeting- I'd like to own enough stock in a company that I actually care enough to go to a Shareholder meeting.
21. See Moscow, Tehran, and Havana- I want to go to the foreign capitols most associated with being "anti-American" in modern history, just to meet the people there and prove they are good people.
22. Own a boat- I want a boat. Like, one you can sleep in and take out in the ocean. 
23. Go to the top of the Empire State Building- I want to see New York from the top of the greatest building in the world.
24. Learn another language, or more- I would like to be better than an ignorant gringo and maybe speak some other languages.
25. Go to an Olympics- I'd love to go see the Olympics some day. Not in the U.S. either. I mean over seas.
26. Visit the Presidential libraries of every President in my lifetime- So, we're talking Reagan, Bush 41, Clinton, Bush 43, Obama, and whoever gets elected next.
27. Buy a black BMW- Yup, this is the car I want.
28. Visit Hong Kong- This appears to be the only skyline that really rivals New York City, in my view, in the world. I want to see it.
29. Do an Oktoberfest in Germany- I want to do one of these things for real, for real. 
30. Tour Africa- I want to go see lions and other animals in their natural habitat. Africa might be the last continent that corporations haven't completely FUBAR'ed yet. It'd be nice to see.
31. Found a charitable organization- I love politics, and I think government is the best equipped entity to solve the world's problems. I just would like the purity at some point to work on one issue outside of the political process. I have a lot of non-political friends, and I think it would be much easier for them to support that, which would be kind of cool.
32. Go to Daytona and Indy- I'd love to go see the two biggest auto races of the year. I'm not a die-hard race car driving fan, but it's awesome live. Those two races must be a lot of fun.
33. Settle Down in Life- I have no idea what this even means. Getting married isn't really a goal for me, though i'm not 100% opposed as I once was. I wouldn't mind kids, but I know i'd end up hating it. I just keep thinking there has to be something else to this life than career and petty nonsense.

The Democratic Nomination Fight Isn't Overly Close

Let me start by saying something that should have been obvious all along- Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. We get very caught up in micro-events during Presidential elections, when they don't really matter. We get caught up in "the horse-race," mostly because that's the way the race is covered. The coverage is outside of reality though, frankly. We've heard a lot about Bernie Sanders success in this race, and that is actually fair coverage, but then the media has morphed that into the race being excruciatingly close. That is false.

The Democratic Party process is created to do two things- give us a quick and decisive winner, and to make sure every demographic and issue group gets representation. What that does is it gives us an insurmountable leader by the end of the second month in the process, but it also means they won't "clinch" the nomination until June, if they ever do. If you watched in 2008, Barack Obama had an insurmountable lead in delegates by the end of February (month two) of about 160 delegates. At no point could Clinton close that all the way to a tie, or get herself a lead. President Obama never clinched though, actually being pushed over the top by the super-delegates after finishing the primary process with a lead that was about 1/3 the margin of Hillary Clinton's lead right now. The race was over in February. The nomination wasn't technically clinched until July's convention. This is how our process works.

It's important to understand though- Clinton has a much bigger lead than President Obama ever had on her. She has almost three-million more votes, a number neither of them ever lead by. She has a lead of 768 delegates. Her elected delegate lead is 269. She basically leads under any and all ways to configure this fight, as illustrated above. Her lead is significant.

It's also worth noting that nothing in this process "showed weakness." Bernie Sanders ran a credible campaign. He won states. He has a lot of delegates. Even after he was basically too far behind to win the nomination, he continued to win states. Most of the western U.S. will look very good for Bernie on a map when this is over. All of that is good for Bernie, but it's not significant to the general election. Hillary Clinton won contests after she had no shot of beating Barack Obama. Jerry Brown won contests against Bill Clinton after he had no shot. This happens. Voters who support the second place candidate do not become less passionate because they are behind. They don't stay home because the opposition declares they will win. Those second place candidates win some late primaries. It happens. On the final night of the 2008 primary process, I remember watching Hillary Clinton win primaries even as Barack Obama was celebrating crossing the delegate threshold to win (using super-delegates, mind you). She was out of the race quickly and without attacking the then-Illinois Senator. I suspect Bernie Sanders will win several states on June 7th. He may even win California, though i'm not so sure there. Even if he does, it won't matter. Hillary is highly likely to cross 2,383 delegates on June 7th, using her super-delegate endorsements as well. She will have won the contest.

The odds are that Clinton is going to win this race fairly easily. She's going to cross 2,383 early on the night of June 7th, and probably end up with at least 2,700 plus delegates, winning by over 700. She's going to cross 2,026 pledged delegates on the night of June 7th, clinching the majority of the elected delegates, and probably securing herself over 2,100 pledged delegates in the process, possibly keeping him below 2,000 total delegates even. She's going to lead in the popular vote. She's going to win this race by every metric, and we know that over a week before California even votes. That means the race was not overly close.

Perhaps this is not something pleasant for Sanders supporters. I understand, been there and done that. It isn't going to change though. The first female nominee for President is not going to have the nomination taken from her, even though she got the most votes. The super-delegates, whom she currently leads by about 500, are not going to switch sides and go with the second-place finisher. I totally understand why someone who supports Bernie Sanders would want them to, they want their candidate to win. That is not going to happen though. So while we argue about all kinds of nonsense about this primary contest, please understand- we know who is going to win now. She's going to win cleanly, and with a healthy margin. There really isn't much drama here.

Chase Utley Owns the Mets

If you're going to be a tough guy, don't fail. If you're going to throw a baseball at another player to prove a point, hit them. This is really true if you're a staff ace type of arm who has a 99 mph fastball and pinpoint control. What i'm getting at is that if Noah Syndergaard and the Mets wanted to prove some kind of point about their manhood against Chase Utley on Saturday night, the least the Mets ace could have done is actually to hit the guy.

Of course, in typical Mets fashion, he failed. On a night they honored their 1986 team, Syndergaard only added to the lore of the Mets, pulling a Shawn Estes and missing his target as he threw at Utley. He got tossed from the game, Utley hit two homers, and the Dodgers beat the crap out of the Mets and sent most of the Citi Field crowd heading for  the LIE and GCP before the game ended. For all of us who hate the Mets, it was a sweet, sweet night. About the only thing that could have made it better would have been if "Crying Jordan" had come out of the "Big Apple" pop-up in centerfield after each Utley homer.

This is just the latest reminder to Mets fans of the obvious- Utley has owned you guys. He's second to only Ryan Howard amongst active players in homers against the Mets. Oh yeah, third is Jimmy Rollins. Obviously he had some good times at your expense back in 2007 and 2008, and he got the last laugh last night. All of that aside, I don't have any problem with Syndergaard trying to send a message to Utley for last year's NLDS slide if that's what he wants to do, but I would suggest in the future that when you try to send a message, you put that fastball squarely into the ribs. Instead what happens is Noah looks like a petty fool, maybe gets suspended (which would be truly awesome, given Utley never sitting a game for the Tejada slide), and has to watch from the clubhouse as Utley terrorizes their sold out crowd. This is certainly no way to stand up to the bully, unless of course part of your plan is to get battered in public.

You Must Start Before You Are Ready....

No truer words could be spoken- no truer words did I need to hear.

Beer and Pennsylvania- Now We're More Like Ohio!

One of the amazing things that I realized when I was moving around the country in 2008 on the Presidential trail was that not every state had liquor laws like Pennsylvania. When I was in Ohio, and would get gas at the end of the night, I could also buy a six-pack of beer. A few years later in New York state, working a local race, the six pack buy was a ritual at night. When I would come home to Pennsylvania at the end of these places though, I had to go to a beer distributor. Pennsylvania didn't allow six packs to be sold at gas stations and convenience stores. The result was much more restrictive sales, obviously.

That has now ended. If there was one, and only one area in which I aspired for Pennsylvania to be like Ohio, it was this. Now I don't want to see the distributors go out of business, but I do like the idea of six pack sales in convenience stores. I think it's good policy, as it will create more sales and more tax revenue. It also allows the opportunity to sell more licenses. I also like it as a consumer. I can buy a six pack when I want now, and not just in "regular business hours." The Governor's office sums up my highest hopes here:

“Governor Wolf has requested a policy change at thePennsylvania Liquor Control Board to free the six-pack and allow for gas stations to sell six-packs of beer as long as they regularly and customarily prepare and sell food, have a serving area of not less than 300 square feet, and are equipped with tables and chairs accommodating at least 30 persons at one time,” Wolf’s spokesman Jeff Sheridan wrote in a separate post.

“Creating and following this precedent will make the commonwealth more inviting for customers and businesses, and it will address a long standing failing of our liquor and alcohol system,” he concludes. “Soon, it will be easier than ever to stop by your local Sheetz, Wawa or Rutters and to grab your favorite brews! It’s time to free the six-pack, Pennsylvania.”

Now, to be clear- I do not support selling the state liquor stores. I do support this though. This is more convenient for consumers. I also support the increased revenue for the state. As for the beer distributors, who will face increased competition, this could be an issue. My thought there is that they can and will compete if they are willing to improve their selection, be more flexible with their hours, and compete price-wise as well. I don't think this is a death sentence. I think this is market capitalism at it's finest. We heard similar cries of how this would kill distributors when super-markets got the licenses to sell beer too. It never happened, at least not in my neighborhood.

I already love my Wawa and Sheetz (in that order), but now i'll love them even more. At the end of a long day's work, I can grab a hoagie and a six pack and go home, in one foul swoop. Count me in. I think this is a positive policy change for consumers in Pennsylvania.

Blame Him- Bernie is Just Being Bernie

Bernie Sanders has spent his entire career as the "alternative" to the mainstream Democratic Party. He has been loosely affiliated with it in the sense that he has caucused with the House and Senate Democrats in Congress for a quarter century. He never joined the party in all these years though, and that's because he was standing as the "progressive alternative" to it, at least in his own mind.

This puts him diametrically opposite to Hillary Clinton, his opponent in this primary in both partisan-membership and view of the Democratic Party's utility. While they substantively voted together over eight out of every ten times a Senate vote came up, Clinton was the person out at fundraisers for other candidates, speaking at candidate kick-offs, endorsing candidates, and lending her voice to help other Democrats for all of these years. Sanders has held himself up as a more "pure" progressive than much of the party for all of these years, and has largely avoided raising money, campaigning, or speaking on the behalf of Democrats.

When you consider things that way, it's actually really benign to say that the "super-delegates," all party and elected officials, would support Clinton. Of course they would. It's also reasonable to understand why a Sanders supporter would hate that- they are supporting him in no small part out of a distaste for the party's performance in office. They feel the party hasn't fought hard enough for some of the highest aspirations of some trains of more liberal thought- national health care, wealth re-distribution, free college, and other proposals that Sanders is putting forward. If you think that the party isn't doing a good job, you back Sanders. If you think it is doing a good job, you back Clinton.

Of course, this is the most clear reason for why I am supporting Hillary Clinton. I am as annoyed as anyone when I hear the common attacks on the Democratic Party- it doesn't fight hard enough, it's corrupted by money, it's not responsive- are you kidding me? It may not fit your ideal for outcomes, but we've watched President Obama sign the Affordable Care Act, the Stimulus Bill, new rules for overtime, immigration enforcement, minimum wage for federal contractors, and Dodd-Frank, to name a few of his many achievements that are touching peoples' lives right now. While in a fantasy world we could have passed Medicare for All instead of the ACA, I realize that just isn't plausible. I realize my party did it's best. I also prefer having a candidate for President who will stand up for her party, for it's elected officials everywhere, and defend them from some of the outrageous attacks they take from both the right and the left in American politics. It quite frankly is insulting to hear about how bad our party is from people who never were willing to stand in and fight on the behalf of the progress we made. It makes my choice for President rather easy.

To be fair, Bernie has just been Bernie throughout this process. His message is consistent with his entire career. It's just not a message I can endorse. I think the Democratic Party has done great work, both in it's post-1932 historical form, and in it's last eight years of concrete achievement form. I want to support a candidate who shares my positive view of our party. So while I get what Bernie's doing, I can't be a part of that "revolution."

Don't Blame Him- Bernie is Just Being Bernie

The other day, I came home to find my dog had ripped open a pillow. He's two, he's playful, and I left him alone for a while. I was mad for about 30 seconds, and then I realized something- he was just being a dog. I should know that if I leave him alone for a while, he's going to do something like this. It's my fault for allowing the behavior.

I've spent the last two months being angry at Bernie Sanders and his campaign. I've been angry at the nasty tone they've taken towards the Democratic Party. I've been angry that he won't drop out of a primary race that he can't win. I've been angry at the incorrect way that he has vilified the Democratic process. It's become annoying to watch him tell his supporters he still has a chance when anyone with an iota of a clue about how the process works, and an ounce of honesty, knows he can't win. The whole thing has been maddening.

Perhaps it's time to stop being mad at Bernie Sanders for being Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders, the independent socialist candidate in Vermont all of these years, has never been a member of the Democratic Party. In fact, he has stood his entire career as an alternative to what he believes to be an unprincipled, ineffective Democratic Party. He has existed in Vermont as an alternative to a national party that doesn't make enough progress to satisfy voters there, and he's never been anything but straight forward about that. That he is now standing there and doing the same thing he's always done during the Presidential race should not be shocking. He's usually there to make progress when it's needed most, but the rest of the time he is "critic in chief."

Perhaps, the blame lies with people like me. Democratic leaders from the local to the national level, we all rolled out the red carpet to allow him to run in the primaries, in no small part to avoid him running as a third party candidate. Was that the right decision? Tactically, yes, though perhaps I shouldn't have carried his petition (I don't really regret carrying for his delegates, just him). Perhaps we should have confronted him earlier in the race, and confronted his view of the Democratic Party. Perhaps, months and months ago, we should have confronted his record in the Congress, his view of the Democratic Party's effectiveness, and the plausibility of his proposals. Perhaps we should have, but we didn't. And so Bernie ran, and so his message sounded good to a sizable minority of Democratic Primary voters. I guess we can be mad about that, but we shouldn't be. We should be mad at ourselves for allowing it.

Trump Surging? Not So Much

Republicans fall in line, not in love. I want you to remember that as you watch the polls in the coming weeks and months, and act surprised that Donald Trump isn't losing by 15-20% in them against Hillary Clinton. Every time you hear how she's surprisingly weak against him, or how Bernie would do better remember what I said. Of course she's not doing better than Bernie, she's actually a candidate for the general election. Of course Trump is close or even leading some polls, he's the Republican nominee.

Look, eight years ago at this time, Hillary was doing better than President Obama in general election polls. When you're not going to win, you're being attacked less, and you do better. It's really not hard to figure out. Much as the Republicans would have attacked Hillary with every vicious lie that they are now in 2008, Republicans would turn on a dime and utterly decimate Bernie Sanders if he were the nominee. There's lots to attack, and i'm not even talking about calling him a socialist, though i'm sure they'd turn him into some combination of Mao, Castro, and Stalin by November. To be polite, Bernie is benefitting from less than full coverage. I think his Senate Chairmanship of the committee that oversees the Department of Veteran Affairs from 2013-2015 alone would disqualify him in the general election. Of course he polls well right now- because he isn't going to win. That is the main point. The person who is going to lose, always looks better at the end of the process.

So with that out of the way, let's talk about Trump's "surge." When he initially became the presumptive Republican nominee, Hillary Clinton had a double digit lead on him. Now he's tied or leading in many polls, causing a lot of people to grow concerned about her in the general election. We're a far cry from when most of the articles were talking about his bad map. Clearly this is bad for Democrats, right?

No. After winning the GOP nomination in 2008, John McCain enjoyed a good Spring in the polls. Mitt Romney did very well about now in 2012, after clinching the GOP nomination. What did I say in the first line of this article? All of this is just the GOP base-consolidating behind Trump. To be clear, i'm not saying Hillary Clinton is a stone-cold lock, or that she'll have a ten point lead in a month. Not at all. I'm saying the current polling is a product of formerly skeptical Republicans decided that Donald Trump is superior to Hillary Clinton amongst their choices. This is to be expected- they are Republicans. Coming in around 46% is also quite consistent with where ultimately McCain and Romney came in as well. The only recent Republican to do better than that in a general election was George W. Bush. Trump continues to suffer from all of the problems that Romney and McCain did in the last two elections against President Obama- bad polling numbers amongst African-Americans, Asians, Latinos, Women, Youth, and all other non-old, white, and male groups. You cannot win a national election just winning white people. Not in 2016. That day in American politics has come and gone.

I guess this is as good of a time as any to address the "Bernie or Bust" worries though. While no one is as annoyed as me at these people, it is worth noting that I don't think they are the end of the world that we treat them as. For one, about 66% of Sanders national support says they will back Clinton in the general election, a number that is in line with where Clinton supporters were with President Obama at this point in 2008. In the end, the overwhelming majority of the holdouts came around to the President, and there is no compelling reason right now to believe that won't happen. Some will not, but I'd also wager a guess that most of those voters have not been past Democrats. Do I like that this process goes on and continues to be nasty and divisive? No. However, in the end I believe she will get 85% or more of the Sanders support in the general. If i'm right, it will be enough. The real hardcore "Bernie or Bust" people will make their point, and that's fine. They can embrace their privilege of choice any way they'd like.

Now, none of this means i'm saying Hillary is in the clear. She has high negatives, and that's not being helped by this primary fight. Unlike President Obama in 2008, she is underwater with independents. She will have a tough time winning this race, and it probably will look more like 2012 than 2008. Could she end up as our generation's George H.W. Bush, winning a third term for her party in a landslide? Sure. She could lose too though, even though I doubt it. My point is that she's in for a fight.

Back to the main point at the beginning though- Republicans fall in line, not in love. Donald Trump is their nominee now. They hate Hillary. This isn't hard for them. Trump isn't really "surging" by picking up Romney and McCain voters. He needs a lot more than that to win. He's simply consolidating his base, something Clinton has not done yet.

What If She Doesn't Win?

Let me start out by saying this- I believe Hillary Clinton will win. I want Hillary Clinton to win. I think she's likely to win. I think she'll do a great job. I'm totally with her.

However, a thought crept into my mind the other day- what if she doesn't win? Not the nomination, which I consider to be over, but the general election? What if we have President Trump, and not President Clinton? What does that mean for the country? What does that mean for the Democratic Party? Does it mean we should have went with Bernie?

I'm going to reverse the order in which I answer these questions to say that even if she doesn't win the general election, I will have no buyer's remorse in choosing her over Bernie Sanders. Here's the truth of the matter- I think she's the better choice, has the better ideas, has the better experience, and is a more credible voice. I don't really agree with his ideas as much as her's, I see no sign that he is personally so capable as to actually pass his ideas, nor do I believe his plans have any chance at all of passing in Congress. In short, even if she doesn't win in the Fall, and you somehow convinced me he's actually a stronger candidate, my answer would remain Hillary.

So what would it mean for the Democratic Party? I think it has lasting meaning. I think you'd immediately see Elizabeth Warren become the de facto next-in-line for President, which is something this entire process has warmed me up to. Essentially, our party would be basically past the "Baby Boomer" era in politics, opening up the floor for the Cory Bookers, Julian Castros, and Xavier Becerras of the world to take center-stage in our party. While 2018's outlook would be quite a bit better, that would be assuming that the loss in 2016 hasn't completely decimated our party. My sense is that the "identity-politics" driven party we are right now would actually be crushed. History shows that Democratic defeat generally drives us towards more moderate options afterwards, rather than the opposite. The future would be one big depressing mess, with the only thing of value being the room created for some of our younger, rising stars. It's even possible that we would see the Supreme Court get worse, something unthinkable for all the folks who said that demographics are destiny, and would help us.

If a loss would be bad for the party, it would be devastating for the country. Donald Trump is an utter ignoramus, a man who has no idea what to do if he were actually in office. He's a bigot, holds ignorant views on how to fix America's problems, and is an awful person in his personal and business lives. He's a silver-spoon born kid, who's dad gave him the world, and then he walks around thinking he's "earned" his success. He's bankrupt casinos, companies, and everything but himself, who was born with so much money that he can't do it. In short, the guy is an embarrassment. Having him represent our country to the world would be a disaster. Replacing President Obama with such an awful person, one who said President Obama wasn't even an American, is the worst thing imaginable.

So, what if Hillary doesn't win? Things will be pretty rough for a while. Politics will go from something that has always interested me, to something i'll despise. In short, it will be a disaster, which is why we can't let her lose. It's why all of this drama with Sanders' supporters incorrectly feeling they've been wronged by the party bothers me so much. It's why I have nothing nice to say to the "Bernie or Bust" crowd. It's why I think Democrats should reform the primary process to make sure we get these races done earlier in the future. This is not something we should need to contemplate in the future.

My Phillies Prospect Rankings, 5/24/16

These guys get ranked.

Given that we're now a quarter of the way into baseball season, I wanted to take a minute and update my Phillies prospect rankings for 2016, taking into account how the players have performed and how their positions have looked.

1. J.P. Crawford- SS- AAA- Given that he's one of the top ranked guys in all of baseball, this seems to be a no-brainer. The thing that stands out most about him is his plate discipline. He's really, really good. Expected arrival in September of 2016.
2. Nick Williams- OF- AAA- While he has had his struggles in AAA so far this year, he's holding his own well, and seems to still be right on schedule to arrive in June or July of this Summer.
3. Jorge Alfaro- C- AA- This guy has the best power i've seen in the system. I'm really excited to see him move up. He's got a great arm behind the plate and can crush the ball, so expect him in 2017.
4. Jake Thompson- P- AAA- After a little bit of a rough start, Thompson is throwing really well right now. If he continues on this level, I expect to see him up in September.
5. Roman Quinn- CF- AA- After a dreaded start, he's had a much nicer May, and looks to build on that. With 19 stolen bases and plus defense, he's only limited by his own consistency and health. I think he may get a call-up in September, but his real arrival is next Summer.
6. Mark Appel- P- AAA- He's hit a bit of a hiccup after a good start, but you can still watch Appel and have hope for the future. I could see him up in September as well, if he gets it figured out.
7. Franklyn Kilome- P- Low-A- After a start that was so bad that I questioned if he was up too far, Kilome has settled in a bit. He's got monster velocity, and if he can command his pitchers and develop the off-speed stuff, he's got a very, very high ceiling. It's going to be a few years though before we see it.
8. Cornelius Randolph- OF- Low-A- Early injuries have limited last year's first pick, but don't worry too much about that. If he continues to hit this Summer, he will climb the ladder very quickly. He won't be up for several years though, either way.
9. Zach Eflin- P- AAA- If we just used minor league performance to rate players, he'd be near the top this year. He's been outstanding for the IronPigs, better than the two pitchers out ahead of him, and there's good reason to believe that he too can make it to the big leagues by the end of the year.
10. Tommy Joseph- 1B- MLB- This is the final time hopefully that Joseph will be eligible, but after finally recovering from his concussions, he clearly is showing us that his former prospect status was legitimate. The future at first base now clearly runs through him, if he can stay on the field and perform.
11.  Ricardo Pinto- P- AA- Pinto is facing a challenge this season in AA and has been responding of late. While he probably will spend all season in Reading, it's clear that he has the kind of stuff to get big leaguers out in the future. That future is probably sometime in 2017.
12. Andrew Knapp- C- AAA- Knapp has struggled a bit with the bat in AAA, at least comparable to AA, but he's hit for some power and held his own. If he continues to show he can handle the defensive duties, he'll remain a player for the future at catcher. Expect him in September.
13. Dylan Cozens- OF- AA- Everyone relax a bit. Yes, he can hit for big time power. Yes, he has a rifle arm from right. Yes, he has good range in the outfield. Yes, he may be a 20/20 player with his good speed. He will strike out a bit though, and needs to close some of the holes in his swing. I'm a big fan, but watch out for him in 2017.
14. Alec Asher- P- AAA- Unfortunately after getting red-hot in AAA, Asher is now on the DL. Fortunately, it's not a long-term type of injury. In his last start, he was throwing a perfect game into the seventh, for what that's worth. Expect him when the next opening happens.
15. Ben Lively- P- AA- To say that Lively has dominated the Eastern League is an understatement. He is pitching like he did when he won the Reds Organizational minor league pitcher of the year in 2014. I would think he debuts in 2017.
16. Scott Kingery- 2B- A- Last year's second round pick has not broken out yet in Clearwater, but he's held his own fine in his first year of professional ball, and could find his stroke all of a sudden. He was a high average hitter in college, and that is the hope for him in the majors. I'm looking towards the end of 2017 for him.
17. Thomas Eshelman- P- A- When we look back at the Ken Giles trade, Eshelman is probably going to be the fourth pitcher to reach the majors. His pinpoint control make him a very safe, solid bet though to work out. A 2015 second rounder, he has pitched decently well in Clearwater this year, and probably has an arrival date in 2018.
18. Carlos Tocci- OF- A- If only he'd gain some weight. No, seriously, Tocci plays a really nice outfield, with a solid arm and range. He's shown some ability to hit for average, and can steal a bag. Power isn't his thing yet, though last year he did show some improved pop for himself. It's at least 2018 for him to arrive though.
19. Jimmy Cordero- RP- AA- If what you want to see is serious pop on the baseball, I have your guy. He can hit triple digits and has an average breaking ball. Don't be shocked if after he gets off the DL, he's in the majors late in 2016.
20. Rhys Hoskins- 1B- AA- After a tough first month, the big first baseman is holding his own now in Reading. He's showing some power now, and his average is creeping up. If he can continue to handle the bat, he has a shot to move up.

The Latest In "I'm a Terrible Millennial"

I'm a bad millennial. That's been established already. I was reading up on a New York Times article about what happens when an office is all millennials, and I was horrified. I wouldn't employ these goons. It was really very eye-opening.

So, let's get an updated list of all the things that make me suck at being a member of my generation:

1. I don't like Beyonce.
2. I don't understand why people are putting their picture in with resumes. 
3. I'm voting for Hillary, proudly, over Bernie.
4. I've never been to Colorado, and don't really plan to.
5. I don't have a beard.
6. I don't do cross-fit.
7. Give me an old-school lager over a craft beer.
8. I don't really hike.
9. I don't care that soda is bad for me.
10. Drake sucks, give me back Biggie and Pac.
11. I hate Steph Curry.
12. The NFL is definitely not my favorite sport.
13. I admit I don't really know a damn thing about soccer while i'm watching Premier League.
14. Yes, really, the "tourist-trap" cheesesteak place known as Pat's is easily my favorite in Philadelphia.
15. I think Williamsburg sucks. If we're going to Brooklyn, give me Bay Ridge or Red Hook.
16. Michael Jordan would actually school all these fools playing ball today.
17. This term "mansplaining" is over-used, if you ask me.
18. Baseball fans who couch everything in sabermetrics terms annoy me.
19. I don't like libertarians.
20. Give me a steak.

Updates to come.

This Generation's Answer to Philadelphia's Prayers?

A few weeks ago, the Philadelphia Eagles traded up all the way to #2 in the NFL Draft and took Carson Wentz as their quarterback of the future. The North Dakota State QB is the heir apparent at quarterback, and now holds the hopes of Eagles fans everywhere, desperate for a Super Bowl. He is, for lack of a better comparison, the new Donovan McNabb.

When McNabb came to prominence in Philadelphia, it wasn't alone. Across the street, the Sixers would pick Allen Iverson #1 overall, and he would be the cornerstone of the franchise for a decade, taking them to the NBA Finals. McNabb himself had Dawkins, Westbrook, Douglas, and other stars that were either drafted or signed in free agency to help him in the coming years. Across the street in the other direction, the Phillies drafted Pat Burrell at #1 overall, and would draft Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Brett Myers, and Cole Hamels with high round picks that would help eventually build the cornerstones of a championship team. The Flyers would break up the Lindros-lead "Legion of Doom," and begin assembling the Richards and Carter squad that eventually would reach the Stanley Cup Finals.

Carson Wentz will have a lot of company as he arrives in Philadelphia. Next month, the Phillies and Sixers will pick #1 overall in their respective drafts. Both squads have several young talents already in place on their roster, and should start to see improvements quickly. The Flyers already have a very young squad, one that surprised most observers and made the playoffs this season. In short, it's happening again.

I have no idea if Carson Wentz will be Donovan McNabb. I have no idea exactly whether the Phillies will pick Puk, Lewis, or Groome. I can't tell you for sure if it's Simmons or Ingram coming to the Sixers. I can tell you this- it's time to get excited. It's time to start believing something good is coming to this title-starved city soon.

The Phillies' Future is Nearing

The 2008 parade down Broad Street might not feel so long ago, but if you go to Citizens Bank Park for a game right now, the only reminders of that team you may see on the field are Chooch and Ryan Howard. Around them is an assembled cast of characters that were supposed to be really terrible, but have managed to stay over .500 much further into the season than any of us expect. Even so, only Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera are virtual locks for the future, and the Phillies line-up is carrying around several complete eye-sores. As you watch Howard, Peter Bourjos, and a few others take up plate appearances, you can't help but ask yourself how much of the current product has a future in Philadelphia.

With that in mind, I invite you to take a ride up the Northeast Extension to Allentown and take in a ball game. If you haven't seen a full line-up there, take a ride down 222 to "Baseballtown" and Reading should be able to fill in the holes. The Phillies upper-minor league affiliates are stock full of the line-up and rotations of the future, and many of them are just a few months away from arrival.

First Base
There is a very real chance that Ryan Howard's true heir apparent is already in uniform with him, thanks to the promotion of Tommy Joseph. While it is too early to tell if the former top prospect is ready to stick, he has held his own in Philadelphia so far, after tearing up the AAA ranks. If that's the case, then there's no need to read on. Just in case though, it is worth noting that the Phillies have other advanced options to watch.

Brock Stassi has struggled offensively in AAA this year, but last year's breakout in Reading is still fresh on many minds. He still has some time to turn it around and get back into the picture. More likely than Stassi though is Rhys Hoskins, currently the starter in Reading, who is starting to heat up this past week. Hoskins has had good power in the lower minors, and could hit his way into the picture. Beyond these options, either Jorge Alfaro or Andrew Knapp could end up moving here.

Second Base
The most likely outcome here is that the short-term future second baseman is already on the big league roster. Obviously Cesar Hernandez played well enough last year to see Chase Utley out of town, but he has yet to clinch up this job long-term. His double-play partner, Freddy Galvis may end up as an option here, and does have a better glove. The problem for Freddy though is that his bat has become a real negative this year, probably giving Cesar the edge to keep this spot. The real threat to Cesar comes from Odubel Herrera, who could be moved back to his natural position if a top prospect outfielder performs up to par. Herrera is probably the solution of the next couple years, unless the Phillies choose to go out and find help at this position on the market.

In the system, this position is a little lighter. Angelo Mora and Jesmuel Valentin in Reading could be options, but that's unlikely. Scott Kingery in Clearwater is the next legitimate option to play his way to the bigs at this position in our system. Malquin Canelo could make the switch from shortstop in the future too, but the Clearwater player has hit an offensive snag at that level.

Shortstop
Sometime later this Summer, J.P. Crawford may arrive in Philadelphia. If I had to bet, it will be in September. His arrival last week in AAA simply put the clock on for when the prized prospect will be a Phillie.

Third Base
Despite some struggles offensively, Maikel Franco is firmly entrenched here. He is a building block of the future.

The Outfield
The only guys in the current outfield with much of a chance at a future are Odubel Herrera and Tyler Goeddel. Waiting nearby in the wings is Nick Williams, who is currently in AAA and holding his own. Dylan Cozens is another corner outfield option, mashing through the AA level this year with prodigious power. Roman Quinn appears to be heating up, and has the inside track on being a center fielder of the future type of player. Expect Williams up this season, perhaps even soon. Expect Quinn and Cozens to be considered in September.

Catcher
In my estimation, Jorge Alfaro is the favorite to win this spot, however Andrew Knapp certainly hasn't lost his road here yet. The best question to ask here really is if you want to have Alfaro's potentially big-time bat behind the plate. Either way, I think you will see one or both in the majors by next season.

The Rotation
Vince Velasquez, Aaron Nola, and Jerad Eickhoff have all showed more than enough in the majors to warrant a future. Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, and Mark Appel are all throwing very well in AAA. Alec Asher has thrown well between AA and AAA, while Ben Lively has dominated in AA. Still others in the Reading rotation, like Ricardo Pinto, have a ton of promise for the future.

Next season, the Phillies could fill out a rotation of five rather easily with in-house options. They have more than enough options and talent to make it work.

The Bullpen
I expect the Phillies won't hold onto Jeanmar Gomez, which is sad, but closers have their best value when being traded from teams that aren't going to the playoffs. Hector Neris, Elvis Araujo, and others in this current bullpen could be a part of the future plans. This is the least important part though, as relievers can be found amongst minor league starters and the free agent market.

The Outlook-
I'm on the record before the season saying the Phillies will go 67-95. They have played a lot better than that, and probably should beat that- I'd re-peg them at 75 wins right now. I do not expect them to break .500 at the end of the season yet though, or make a run at the playoffs. Let's hope i'm wrong. Even if they do hit a snag this season and end up out of the chase, there's good reason for the Phillies front office to believe the 2017 team will closely resemble the future team they want to put on the field. In other words, there's reason for them to put a few dollars into the 2017 team to try and contend for the playoffs. While the Nationals and Mets are still good, the Phillies have played them well so far this season, and can certainly expect to hang in the future.

The future is really bright. It's also really close. Enjoy the ride, Phillies fans.

Facts and Hillary

I've become a huge Hillary Clinton fan, but that was not always the case. In 2007, I was not a Clinton fan. In fact, she was probably my third choice in that 2008 field for President, behind Chris Dodd and Joe Biden. I was tired of the "scandals," didn't agree with her on Iraq, didn't believe she had "earned" the nomination, and didn't think she was likable enough to be President. I was many of the things that today's Bernie Sanders supporters are, in their feelings to Hillary Clinton. I'm not today though, and that's not because Hillary has "changed," because she hasn't much. It's because i'm older, and I understand that facts should outweigh how I "feel."

Hillary Clinton is the most ethical leader we have in this nation today. I get that this will raise the ire of some, but there is no other logical conclusion to come to. For the last quarter century, the Republican Party in Washington, DC has had her investigated on everything from her e-mails to possibly murder. They've accused her of corruption, of crimes, and damn-near treason. She always, every single time, without fail, has ultimately not faced a single charge. To be investigated this much, and to not be charged is amazing. Any normal human-being would have been caught up in something they inadvertently found fishing for other stuff, as happened to her husband in the Lewinsky scandal (the GOP did not start out looking for her). That has never happened to Hillary. Despite all of the assertions that she is corrupted by money, is "bought," or is any number of other things, there is zero evidence to back that up. Hillary Clinton is one of the cleanest public officials we could have.

Of course, I'm supposed to believe the country hates her too. She has huge unfavorables, no one at her rallies, and can't be elected, or so they say. She has a lead in votes this year of over two-million, and received eighteen-million votes in 2008. Bernie Sanders seems to have so much more energy, and more people coming to see him, but yet he's losing the race to her. The only thing I can gather is that her critics are incorrect about her support.

I get it. Hillary Clinton doesn't feel pure or decent, she's calculating and smart, and she's willing to get deals done. That's not the stuff people feel good about in government, so they project negative characteristics on her. The truth of the matter though is, she's got a strong group of backers, and she's a quite honest person. Is she perfect? No. Some of the things I disliked about her in 2007 and 2008 were true. Even so though, the only facts that we bend in regards to Secretary Clinton as a society are the ones we willfully back to make ourselves feel better. If we were honest, we'd all admit it- she's the best, most qualified candidate running for President in 2016.

No Bernie- The Democratic Party is a Pretty Damn Good Institution

I guess this was inevitable. The "likable" Bernie Sanders that rose the polls and raised a lot of important issues had to eventually go after his opponent, Hillary Clinton. That's just politics. What's happened beyond that though is simply something we all should have seen coming. Bernie Sanders is a United States Senator, a known brand, a person who has stood as a progressive alternative to the Democratic Party for years. Some would call him an allied person, a member of Congress who stands with our party in the caucus and votes for our leaders. Others would say that he is an enemy, someone who's narrative of a weak and feckless Democratic Party reinforces what the American-Right says- that Democrats are morally bankrupt people with no spine, who are ineffective at what they do. I guess that depends on how much you value the institution of the Democratic Party though, and whether or not you really do think it's a worthwhile institution. I happen to think it is.

I guess I happen to think the modern Democratic Party is an institution worth having because of the lives it effects. This President, the one whom Senator Sanders says he wants to move to the left of, has done things that have helped millions of Americans. Just last week, he extended overtime rights to millions of workers who were not eligible before that. He signed the Affordable Care Act, which has extended health care to millions of Americans. He signed the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, extending equal pay to millions of women. I could go on and on, but the point is that the Democratic Party may not be exactly what you individually want it to be, but it is an incredibly effective institution at helping millions who don't have a voice of their own. It also is a clear and contrasting with the Republican Party on issue after issue, even if the positions of the Democratic Party are not as liberal as everyone wants. Getting everything your way at all costs is not superior to improving the lives of millions. The perfect is not the enemy of the good.

This brings me back to Bernie Sanders, and the way this Democratic Primary has gone off the rails a bit. The Vermont Senator is now actively campaigning against the DNC Chairwoman, and accusing her of stacking the deck against him in this process. This twisting of reality is sad, because it suggests to his supporters that they should feel cheated- and honestly, he just lost fair and square. Sure, there are things I agree with him on that are wrong with the process we held- Saturday night debates and the existence of super-delegates come to mind first- but that doesn't change that the voters have chosen her by every metric imaginable to a sane person. Some don't want to accept that. This is why you have things like the near riot in Nevada. That is why Bernie's statement afterwards was so troubling to me- it seemed to reinforce the idea that it's the party, not the results, that are causing him to lose. The truth is, she's just winning this race, under the system that existed before either of them were running.

There is a point where every primary has outlived it's usefulness. The side that is behind tries to extend the race in hopes of a different result, and the fighting becomes more personally negative. Clinton supporters are resorting to calling Sanders a communist, a Republican plant, and attacking his party registration. Sanders supporters are embracing bogus Republican talking points about Hillary being corrupt, Benghazi, her e-mails, and all other sorts of madness. Since we know who will win the most pledged delegates at this point, it's time for the super-delegates to make clear they aren't switching sides, and end this discussion. For the sake of the election, we've reached that point.

For the sake of the party though, I really don't know what the right answer is. Here's the truth- you can't shut up Bernie or his supporters. We have a first amendment here. They can, and seemingly will, attack the Democratic Party in the same fashion the Tea Party destroyed the Republican Party as an institution. I happen to reject their view, that the Democratic Party is corrupted and ruined, and think the party has done mostly admirable things in recent years. It would be nice if more Democratic leaders would stop bunkering down, stop just telling the Sanders people to shut up, and would take on their attacks on the party. Otherwise we may see a damn good institution get burned to the ground.