Who is Really the Weakest Republican Nominee?

Donald Trump is having an awful week, one that is making Republicans worry. Could they lose the House with him as nominee? Could they wipe out for a generation? There are genuine fears about Trump amongst Republicans, ones that are only heightened by his flub on abortion this week, saying he would "punish" women who had abortions, then taking two more positions within three hours that don't match. Trump is a fraud, and the "professional" Republican class knows that, but they can't convince their voters of it.

Accordingly, almost all active Democrats seem to be embracing a run against Trump. They realize that he's so deeply flawed that there is an opening to beat him, and the broader Republican Party, badly. The standard logic that I and many others have followed is that running against a white-nationalist billionaire, with no experience at all for this job, and who says insane things, is good. I don't discount that logic even now. I just think there may be an argument for other candidates as being even weaker.

With Donald Trump, he absolutely motivates Democrats to go out and vote against him. He offends so many people that it's easier to turn them out. He also motivates masses of ignorant people though. He motivates bigots. With Trump, his negativity cuts both ways. Yes, he helps us, but he also doesn't give them a boost too. Democrats win that battle nine times out of ten, but there is a counter balance.

With Ted Cruz, he is almost as offensive and unelectable as Trump, but he motivates less people to his side. Cruz's base are fanatical religious right-wingers, "Oathkeepers," and other people who are very ideological. While these people may like him fervently, they aren't showing up "more" than they have in the past- these people already voted. Cruz is not the one bringing new voters and groups into the party like Trump, he's just the latest extremist to motivate the purists. Ironically, the man who has railed against the establishment longest is basically becoming the establishment-esque guy. Cruz turns off almost as many normal voters as Trump, but he really doesn't motivate anyone like Trump does.

This leaves John Kasich, the obviously most electable Republican in the field, right? I mean, the polling says so, so it has to be so. The problem with that logic of course is that no one is attacking Governor Kasich right now, which is giving people the idea that he's a moderate. While he carries that aura now, I don't believe he can get the nomination and carry it into November. You see, for Kasich to win the nomination, he will have to come from third place in the delegate count to take the nomination from Trump and his large group of fringe-y supporters. All of these surge voters coming out to give Trump the nod will not stick with Kasich. Most of them will turn on him actually, and probably attack him from the right. As that happens, the Clinton campaign will be railing on his record as Governor, a record that includes defunding Planned Parenthood, amongst his many other not-moderate achievements. Kasich would fold like a house of cards with the nomination.

Democrats can lose this election, but they basically have to beat themselves. None of these Republicans is overly electable, and the party's time to stop this kind of nightmare situation was back during 2015, when they could have fallen in line behind a better candidate than Marco Rubio (basically anyone). They didn't do so, and now they have this mess. I'm not sure that Democrats really have a preference though on which of the clowns wins- one is too toxic to win and turns up our turnout, one is too toxic to win and doesn't motivate anyone, and the third is boring now, and would have to become toxic to win the nomination. It's a lose-lose-lose proposition for them- so Democrats please, stay out of your own way.