Thursday, April 28, 2016

The State of the Presidential Primaries

All good- and bad- things must come to an end. For the 2016 Presidential Primaries, that time is coming. Both races as we knew them are essentially ending. While neither front-runner is a lock to win their nomination outright with pledged delegates, both have all but eliminated the competition.

First, the state of the Democratic race:

  • Pledged Delegates- Hillary Clinton 1,644 Bernie Sanders 1,316 (Clinton +328)
  • Super Delegates- Hillary Clinton 520 Bernie Sanders 39 (Clinton +481) 
  • Overall- Hillary Clinton 2,164 Bernie Sanders 1,355 (Clinton +809)
Hillary is well on her way to the nomination, probably sometime in May or early June. Hillary needs just 219 total delegates to surpass the 2,383 total, and just 382 more pledged delegates to clinch that count as well. After Tuesday's big night for Clinton, there are 1,014 remaining pledged delegates, and 230 super-delegate remaining uncommitted. She can win around 38% of the remaining delegates and both win the pledged count and an overwhelming victory overall. In short, this race is over.

Now, the Republican side:
  • Donald Trump 987 Ted Cruz 562 John Kasich 153 (Marco Rubio is still technically third with about 170)
I really should not list anyone but Trump at this point, because no one else is still running for President at this time. Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio could get together and be behind in this race. No one but Trump has a mathematically chance to be nominated, Kasich is making a fool of himself continuing to run, and everyone else is just trying to survive to a convention in hopes of winning there. It's funny, actually.

Donald Trump needs exactly 250 more delegates to win the Republican nomination. There are 583 still available, meaning he too does not need a majority of the remainder to get a win. Simply put, this race is as over as the Democratic race, the only question is whether or not Trump can seal the win like Clinton will. Cruz picking Carly Fiorina as his running mate was hilarious, and perhaps just further proof of the low quality of the candidates in the Republican race. This race has been an embarrassment to America, and yesterday was just the latest example of it.

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