As Primary Nears, PA-8 a Real Battle

The best chance for a Democrat to take back a Republican seat in Congress in Pennsylvania this year is probably the 8th Congressional District. The seat encompasses battleground county Bucks, and some of the Republican leaning parts of Montgomery County. Mitt Romney narrowly carried it in 2012, and Mike Fitzpatrick is retiring in 2016, leaving the seat wide open in this race.

I haven't seen a single poll of the 8th Congressional District, but all signs point to a competitive race between State Representative Steve Santarsiero and Shaughnessy Naughton, who narrowly lost the 2014 primary. Normally, geography can tell you a lot about who will win a race in this district- but not this time. Neither one lives all the way down in Bristol or Bensalem, or where most of the voters live- both live a little bit up the river. Santarsiero carries most of the party establishment endorsements with him, but Naughton carries that of Governor Rendell and Congressman Cartwright. While Santarsiero has been in the state house for eight years, Naughton ran and nearly won the primary two years ago. The race should be very close.

If I had to guess, Santarsiero's party backing gives him an edge. With that said, Naughton starts out with a solid base of votes from 2014, and that could give her an edge too. Both are on television with ads, and are running robust field efforts. Santarsiero has a history of winning in a tough house seat, and that experience could come in hand for him on the 26th.