Monday, April 11, 2016

No, Not Bernie

After his recent winning streak, some Bernie supporters hypothesize that Clinton supporters, both super-delegates and regular ones, will now reconsider their support of Hillary Clinton. Let me just start by saying that's not going to happen. Then let me say that I certainly won't be reconsidering.

I'll make the obvious argument, the pragmatic one, first. I don't think Bernie Sanders is an electable candidate. Sure, he polls well right now against Republicans, but that's because no one is really attacking Bernie yet. That would change over night if he were nominated, and his numbers would drop like a lead balloon. Bernie would be hit for being a self-described "socialist," for saying he'll raise taxes, for wanting a pacifist foreign policy, and for his lack of details to his grand plans. Bernie's political base is basically white liberals, and his inability to energize African-Americans would spell doom for him. In short, I think a nominee Sanders would be a disaster for himself. I also think he would be for the party, the party that he has criticized often in the past, and who he isn't fundraising for now. All of this is before the GOP digs through his voting record and eviscerates him that way too.

Then there is the practical math argument- Bernie isn't going to win, so why are we entertaining his attacks on the presumptive nominee, Hillary Clinton. Bernie trails in elected delegates 1,287-1,037, a margin of 250 delegates, which is insurmountable under Democratic proportional delegate rules with just 1,647 elected delegates remaining. That margin is compounded by her solid leads in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New Jersey, her smaller lead in California, the lack of caucuses remaining, and the closed primary contests ahead. Bernie claims that the super-delegates will switch to him as the process goes on, but that has no chance of happening. Hillary leads 469-31 amongst super-delegates, a margin four times as large as her biggest 2008 lead, and that will not change since she won't ever trail in the elected delegates. The super-delegates might at least entertain the thought of switching over if Sanders lead the pledged delegates, but that is never going to happen. Since she leads both pledged and unpledged delegates (elected and super), it's fair to say the current scoreboard says 1,756-1,068 in favor of Clinton. Clinton will win 627 of the next 1,647 delegates pretty easily, plus more super-delegates most likely. She will reach the majority of elected delegates, 2,026, with ease, but winning 739 of the remaining 1,647 pledged delegates. In short, this race is over, even if Bernie wins the majority of the remaining delegates, which isn't likely. Her leads in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, and California represent an overwhelming majority of what's left.

Finally though, I don't want Bernie on the substance. Bernie has promised a bunch of things he cannot, and plausibly should not deliver. He has no substantive plan for breaking up the banks, no idea how he would go about it, and no idea what to do for the people impacted by that. He has no substantive plan for giving everyone free college education, or any idea how to react to the economic jolt that will cause to some people. His "Medicare for All" plan scraps the Affordable Care Act and could crater the economy with the immediate job losses, assuming he ever figures out how he is going to pay for it. He's going to throw the bankers in jail, with no real legal authority to do so. He's going to overturn Citizens United and get money out of campaigns, with no realistic plan to do it. He's going to do all of this of course, even though President Obama was unable to do much more than a meager Stimulus program, the Affordable Care Act, and the Dodd-Frank bank legislation, all of which Sanders calls inadequate, but all of which contributed to massive Democratic losses in 2010 and 2014. Sanders is going to do it by leading a "political revolution" where his followers come protest in DC or something. You'll find this shocking i'm sure, but I doubt the GOP is all that afraid of this. You also won't be surprised to hear that I'm horrified by the prospects of going down this road, and proving once again that the American left is so idealistic that it is incapable of governing in a responsible way.

I want Hillary Clinton to be our nominee and next President. I want her experience and I want her more realistic plans. When I hear a candidate talk about increasing apprenticeships for tradesmen, I want that. When I hear a candidate talk about lowering student loan debt, instead of just making college free, I want that. When I hear a candidate say she wants to work within the current constructs of the ACA and Dodd-Frank to take on issues in our health care and banking systems, I want that. Yes, Clinton has made mistakes before, like her Iraq War Vote, but so has Bernie (gun manufacturer immunity, the 2008 bailout, saving Detroit/American car manufacturers, voting against funding for 9/11 first responders, etc.). Clinton seems to have learned from it, and apologizes for many of her mistakes, while Bernie defends his behavior with many excuses. When we're talking about taking on the Syrian crisis, improving on the ACA, handling global climate change, and negotiating new legislation with Congress, I want Hillary Clinton.

I started out this process really liking Bernie Sanders, and appreciating the energy he brought to the primary. At this point, his attacks on Secretary Clinton's campaign finances and Senatorial voting record have completely turned me off to him. I would love to say that I would never vote for Bernie in the general election, but realize how disgustingly privileged that is, knowing the neanderthal Republicans would do lasting damage to the lives of millions of people living in America who need a President. The irresponsible, childish behavior of the #BernieOrBust crowd, their lack of any real-world perspective on politics, reminds me that both parties are capable of having a Tea Party. The rigid ideology, the anger, and the lack of specifics turns me off.

So, don't assume I just like Hillary because of pragmatism. I prefer her on all fronts.

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