A Wisconsin Primary Primer

Tomorrow, voters in Wisconsin will go to the polls and cast their primary ballots for President on both sides of the political universe. On the Republican side, it's another chance to stop the Donald Trump runaway train. On the Democratic side, it's a chance for Bernie Sanders to keep running, but it won't matter much unless it's an absolute runaway. The two races are in vastly different places.

First, on the Republican side- this is an important state. Wisconsin has 42 delegates on the line tomorrow, and the winner automatically gets a majority of the delegates. Ted Cruz has held varying leads in this race so far, and he's likely to win tomorrow, thanks in no small part to Governor Walker's support. Entering tomorrow's primary, the GOP Delegate count is:

• Donald Trump 736
• Ted Cruz 463
• Marco Rubio 171
• John Kasich 143

I only list Rubio to drive home the main point- Kasich has a less than zero chance of winning this thing. He is behind a candidate who has been out for several weeks now. That he remains in this race is silly, and frankly is all ego. Yes, you poll well right now in general election polls, which is in no small part because you're never going to be in a general election. No one is picking the third place finisher.

This nomination is a two-way race, and at least tomorrow night it should favor the guy in second. I expect Ted Cruz to win about 33 of the 42 delegates, and Donald Trump and John Kasich to split the rest, something like 7-2 or 8-1. This means Trump will probably come out of tomorrow up 743-496-145. The eventual winner will need 1,237 delegates, and 806 will remain after this. The math for Donald Trump, coming out of a loss tomorrow, is very difficult. He will need victories later this month in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, including some bigger margins, to get back on the pathway to reaching the number. He is highly unlikely to get much of the Colorado convention's 37 delegates. I can see Trump picking up another 165 this month, getting him to 908 with 502 remaining. Under that scenario, it's going to Cleveland. The only question then is if the GOP is willing to take the nomination from the guy who got the most votes? If they do so, their convention will be a trainwreck.

On the Democratic side, the race is much different. Wisconsin's 86 pledged delegates will be up for grabs tomorrow, but the split is unlikely to change much of anything. Entering tomorrow, the math:

• Hillary Clinton- 1,243 pledged delegates, 469 unpledged delegates (super-delegates), 1,712 overall.
• Bernie Sanders- 980 pledged delegates, 31 unpledged delegates, 1,011 overall

By most accounts, Sanders has reversed Clinton's slim lead, and now has one of his own. Let's assume Bernie wins tomorrow by 10%, a very substantial popular vote win. Being very generous, he could win the delegate count 48-38 then, though it's more likely to be something like 46-40 or closer. She would continue to lead 1,281-1,028 in pledged delegates, or by 253 pledged delegates. There will be 1,661 pledged delegates remaining at that point, meaning he'd have to win the remaining delegates by about 15%. Considering that he's well behind in New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland later this month, and all the states are proportional, Sanders remains in bad shape even with a huge victory tomorrow night. In fact, she'll probably surpass 1,750 total delegates, giving her a shot to reach 2,383 in the next month (in reality, the unpledged delegate endorsements do count). There are 531 pledged delegates in New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland alone this month, and she is likely to win all three states. She should at least cross 2,000 total delegates in April.

In other words, feel the math- unless Bernie starts beating her 85-15% in states like this, Hillary is going to be the nominee.