Wisconsin Predictions

He won't be winning tonight.

Tonight in Wisconsin, we'll learn the winner of that state's Democratic and Republican Primaries. It's been a week and a half since anything has went on, and tonight is the first glimpse into the mood of the public after Easter.

On the Democratic side, I believe Bernie Sanders will win a 52-47% victory over Hillary Clinton, netting 45 of the 86 pledged delegates, gaining just 4 in the contest. This contest will just highlight the futility of Bernie's continued run, and will highlight why the race is basically over. After tonight, there will be 1,661 remaining pledged delegates to be contest, and Clinton will lead that count 1,284 to Sanders 1,025. With unpledged delegates in the count, Clinton will lead 1,753 to 1,056. She will need 630 more delegates to secure the Democratic nomination. She will need 742 to win the majority of the pledged delegates. Both appear likely to happen.

On the Republican side, tonight could be a dagger in the heart of front-runner Donald Trump. This is a "winner-take-most" primary, meaning a Ted Cruz win nets him the majority of the 42 delegates on the line tonight. I expect that he will get 30-35 of the delegates with a win that gives him 42% of the vote. I believe Donald Trump will come in second at 35%, and John Kasich will get the remaining 23%. Let's make this a 30-8-4 split, for argument's sake, and change this race to Trump at 744, Cruz at 493, and Kasich at 147. With just 806 delegates remaining, Trump will be slightly less than 500 delegates from the win. He won't finish lower than first, and he'll get close, but I'm not sure he can reach 1,237 delegates now.

Tonight won't "change" the race, but Wisconsin is likely to give us plenty to talk about.