The Bernie Fantasy's Impending End

Let's be clear- the race for the Democratic nomination has been over in reality since South Carolina, and really since Super Tuesday at the latest. Hillary Clinton holds a delegate lead this afternoon of 250 in the elected delegate department with just 1,647 to go, or what we like to refer to in the math based world as insurmountable. He has no chance to overcome that and win the elected delegate count, so there's no reason to believe her 469-31 super-delegate lead will do anything other than grow, so I think it's probably safe to call the state of the race exactly what it is- 1,756-1,068. Clinton is on her way to the nomination, barring something miraculous happening.

Now, I have long been a fan of Bernie Sanders, going back to when he was Congressman Bernie Sanders in Vermont and I was a college kid learning about him in the early 2000's. I like Bernie, but I don't like some of the messages being pushed right now by and about him, this race, and Hillary Clinton. The coverage of this race by the media, pretending the super-delegates might switch sides, is silly. The coverage of this race, as though 250 elected delegates is not insurmountable, when a lead of half that was for President Obama in 2008, is just incorrect. The negative tone of where this race is going, particularly with Senator Sanders calling Hillary Clinton "unqualified" in a raving speech that brings up corporate money and the Iraq War, is very unfortunate. Talking about "taking it to the convention" as though a floor fight would change the outcome or be good for progressive politics, is insane. In short, the last week or two has soured me on the "niceness" of this year's primary process, and made me want it to come to an abrupt end.

Fortunately, we're reaching the point where that will happen. CNN polling today put Hillary up 11% in Pennsylvania and 16% in New York. It is the second big lead in a row for Clinton in New York, where Emerson put her up 18% this week. The RCP average on the state is Clinton up by 14% at this point, a little over a week out. This makes sense in a state with a large African-American, Hispanic, unmarried women, and "AIPAC" Jewish coalition in their primary electorate. Clinton is consistently in the 50-55% range in Pennsylvania right now, even with all the coverage of her losing streak recently, and RCP gives her a 16% lead here. This is fairly consistent with her numbers in neighboring Ohio, Maryland, and New Jersey. Speaking of Maryland, while it has tightened a bit, it still looks safe for her on the 26th as well, as she's leading comfortably there. This state may be safest of all for her, as African-American turnout should be high with a Baltimore Mayor's race and a U.S. Senate primary being on the ballot. Those three states combine for 531 delegates, and combined with Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, there are 631 delegates left this month. She will win over a majority of them even if she drops a little more. While the media hasn't covered this race correctly so far, hopefully that will end the practice of pretending this race is in doubt.

Hillary Clinton's pledged delegate lead is likely to enter May around 300. It could be a little more, or a little less. There will be just over a thousand pledged delegates left. In short, the next two plus weeks are likely to end this race. Even if Bernie were to narrow all three of these states to ties, it would likely be over. Reality is about to set in, and at least in my view, it's about time.