This is where I tell you how last night means nothing. It is getting annoying to tell people this, i've been doing this for two or three weeks now, but it remains the same. While I'd love to sit here and tell you about how Clinton slammed the door and won a state she should not have, that's not going to happen. It's all about the demographics. Don't take it from me, take it from former Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe.
Here's the honest impact of last night- with 99% of the votes counted, Bernie Sanders won by about a 57-43% margin, but it will have very little impact on the race. So far, 83 of the 86 delegates have been apportioned, and Sanders leads that count 47-36, a net of 11. Let's assume he wins two of the last three, he would net a 49-37 split, a 12 delegate gain for him. He entered last night down 263 in the pledged delegate count, and is now down 251. That's obviously closer, but let's not forget that Sanders has won 7 of the last 8 contests, and is still down 251. The exact math will end up as 1,280-1,029 in the pledged delegate math. Overall it will be 1,749-1,060 when it's all done, a lead of 689 delegates. In other words, Sanders faces a ridiculously steep road to the nomination.
Looking ahead, Bernie has one more real solid night ahead, in Wyoming, before this month becomes hard for him. Despite Bernie's insistence that New York will be good for him, it's worth noting that he trails by double digits and it is a closed primary- something he has not won yet. Even if he narrowed New York to a virtual tie, there will be 1,397 delegates left after New York, and that would still put him behind in the neighborhood of 240 pledged delegates going into Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island on the 26th of this month. With three weeks to go in those states, he trails in delegate-rich Pennsylvania and Maryland by well north of 20%, sometimes 30% in the polls. There are 384 pledged delegates that day, meaning there will be just over 1,000 left (1,013) at the end of the month. Being really, really charitable here, Sanders could maybe win a 49-30 split in Rhode Island and Connecticut. Clinton is likely to take a split in the 75-100 net gain territory from the other three. I'll be nice and say she wins a +55 day on the 26th. That puts her lead back at about 295 delegates, with 1,013 left. In other words, it becomes impossible. Even if he narrows that by a lot, he's just running out of room. She is nearly a lock to cross 1,500 pledged delegates and 2,000 overall delegates by the morning of the 27th. Even if he beats her fairly badly in California, Clinton reaches 2,383 easily. The math is the math.
So, what is the point now? If Bernie is running for the nomination, he is hoping for external events to force her out of the race, a highly unlikely outcome. If this is about his own ego, that is pointless. If it's just about influencing the process and having a say in the platform at the DNC, that is a great reason to keep going, but then Bernie needs to back off of some of his more sharp jabs at Clinton. Saying Secretary Clinton is "nervous" about a race that she has an insurmountable lead in is poor form. If this is all about just extending the race to extend it, frankly there's no point.
The media will continue to cover this as a horse race, which is just incorrect. This is not a close primary fight. In 2008, President Obama won the overall delegate count by just over 300- Hillary's current lead is just under 700. Why is Bernie continuing to run this race? I have no idea. I have no choice at this point but to believe someone's ego is involved.
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