It's been over, but any dreams you had are over now. Bernie Sanders will not be the nominee of the Democratic Party for President of the United States. No way, no how, no Bernie. You can write Hillary Clinton down in pencil or ink if you want, but there's no way for Bernie to get there. If you want to believe in some crazy Republican conspiracy about Hillary Clinton being indicted on some phantom crime, I'm not going along with you, but you can. Even then, the Revolution is dead though. Math says so.
After last night's win in New York, Hillary Clinton holds substantial, frankly insurmountable leads. She leads the pledged delegate count 1,428 to 1,151. She leads the super-delegates, or unpledged delegates, by a count of 502-38. That's 1,930 to 1,189 overall, or a margin of 741 delegates. Yes, Bernie is entitled to make the super-delegates actually vote, if he wants, at the convention. No, they're not going to vote for him. With 1,400 pledged delegates out there still to be awarded, he is not going to make up a 239 delegate disadvantage. Not with next week's states being on the horizon.
There are 189 pledged delegates on the line next Tuesday in Pennsylvania, and Hillary holds a 13 point lead in both the latest poll and the RCP average of polls. Maryland has 95 pledged delegates on the line next week, and Hillary holds a 25% lead in the latest poll, and a 20.7% lead in the RCP average. RCP has just one poll in their Delaware average, a state with 21 pledged delegates, and Hillary Clinton holds a 7% lead. Connecticut has 55 pledged delegates, and a few polls, and RCP shows her leading by 7.5% there. Rhode Island has no recent polls on RCP, but the last one showed Clinton up 9% in the race for their 24 pledged delegates.
Clinton is extremely likely to add to her lead next Tuesday. Giving Clinton a 10% win in Pennsylvania (which seems low) and a 20% win in Maryland (which also seems low), that would yield 104-85 and 56-39 in those two. Even if Sanders won the other three (unlikely as it would seem) by ten points each (even more unlikely), she may come out with 12-9, 30-25, and 14-10, best case scenario. Clinton would still gain another 24 delegates that night on Sanders. There will be just 1,016 pledged delegates left on the table after that, and Clinton's lead would be up to 1,632-1,331 in the pledged count. Bernie would have to beat her by 302 out of 1,016 remaining pledged delegates, or a 30% margin. He is not going to win all of the remaining primaries by that. He particularly won't win California and it's 475 pledged delegates by that margin, a state where RCP shows Clinton leading by 9.5%.
For academic purposes, Hillary has not clinched the nomination yet, but in reality, she has. Any pathway to victory for Sanders always included winning the 4,051 pledged delegates. Given how unlikely that is, write it off now. He can prolong the inevitable by denying her 2,383 pledged delegates, and forcing the super-delegates to vote in a contested vote in Philadelphia. None of them will be happy about that though, so i'm not sure exactly why he thinks they would vote for him? The talk of his "good polling" numbers doesn't mean much to most super-delegates- they realize he isn't facing negative ads.
Jeff Weaver can come on MSNBC and talk however he'd like, the only question now is how Bernie Sanders wants this play out. Perhaps he thinks so lowly of Hillary Clinton that he will attack her hard this week, and into the future, and drag the race to Philadelphia without a hope of reconciliation between the two sides, throwing the Presidency to Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. If he does that, he will return to a Senate where he is hated and shunned by his colleagues, and where he will finish his career as an ineffective old man. Perhaps on the other hand, he will contest the next week, and then begin to tone down his rhetoric. Perhaps he will not drop out as she surpasses the 2,383 total delegate mark, but he will simply seek to win delegates and have a say in the future of the party. Perhaps he will then campaign for her and other Democrats this Fall, and take his new-found influence and fame back to Washington next year and pass a major piece of legislation from his campaign platform. In this scenario, Sanders becomes an icon, an elder-statesman within the party. The choice is Bernie's now. The choice will come due very soon.
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