Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Thoughts on Election 2015 in the Lehigh Valley

Last night, 41,281 people voted in Northampton County. For comparison, 39,029 voted two years ago in the race for County Executive. In 2011, only 37,231 people voted. Obviously, not everyone votes in every race, but for a comparison, Steve Barron's 2011 race for Controller had 31,011 votes cast, and his 2015 race had 35,817. In other words, turnout was way up.

Some might be tempted to call last night a split decision. I would not. Yes, Republicans took back the two County Council District seats that don't have Bethlehem and Easton in them, and council will be 7-2 Republican for the next two years. That is just a reminder that those who draw the maps can win even when they don't win. Democrats won the county for Supreme Court and Commonwealth Court (and might have won Superior Court had we not been running against a native judge with a bunch of Democratic endorsers), and actually won it pretty easily in both races. Democrats won the countywide race for the Court of Common Pleas Judge position, behind Sam Murray's strong candidacy. Democrats won the Controller's race behind incumbent Steve Barron, also a countywide. While Democrats usually win the city races in Easton and Bethlehem, it's also worth noting that Democrats won in Bethlehem Township, taking the majority on that board of Commissioners. Democrats, got more votes up and down the ballot in Palmer Township. Democrats hung in and were competitive in places like Lower Saucon and Upper Nazareth. Democrats did great in many of the boroughs of the county, with Northampton particularly standing out. Yes, many of the counties more rural areas, many in the northern tier of the county, and much that is well off of route-22 did vote Republican last night, which hurt both of our council candidates. Democrats won many more votes in the county, won in nearly all of the population centers of the county, and picked up new seats in parts of the county that we have not been competitive in for a while. We have work to do in the north end of the county, but I would call last night a resounding success.

In Lehigh County, the election was also interesting. With all of the attention on the FBI raids and other madness out of Allentown, I expected a Republican runaway win. In the race for Sheriff, it was. In the race for Controller, the GOP was able to win by about 3%. The Republicans won three of four Commissioners seats, but that actually represented a one seat pick-up for the Democrats. Dan Hartzell not only won, but got second in the eight way race. Bob Martin was just under 700 votes off, Hillary Smith around 750, and Joanne Jackson was about 800 votes away. While those numbers aren't recount-level close, they are a sign that with hard work, Democrats can turn around their situation in Lehigh County. I'm actually enthused by their results last night. There were signs in Allentown that the scandal took a toll, as the races for the last seat on City Council and for Controller were closer than normal. Even so, the Democrats hung on in those, and beat an incumbent Republican school board member. Of course there would be more angry voters this cycle, but at least they survived. At least the people showed up too- they still care.

The surrounding counties did supply some interesting stuff too. Carbon County was a bit of a split decision, with the Democrats winning for DA and Sheriff, but losing close for control of the Commissioners board and the Coroner's office. Monroe County appears to have went Republican last night, keeping with it's bi-polar political personality that goes Republican in odd years. Berks County went very Republican for the night, which was interesting given the statewide results. Across the river in Warren County, New Jersey, things stayed very Republican red overall, but Phillipsburg's Mayor's office flipped for the first time in nearly two decades. Democrats now control Phillipsburg's government.

Last night was a local election, and you can't over-read into the results for larger trends, other than the turnout. The turnout in Northampton County was really, really good. Lehigh County had about the same raw number, which is very good considering the situation. In two years, if Northampton County looks the same, there will be a new County Executive. In Lehigh County in two years, they will need to push up a little higher to get Tom Muller re-elected. I'm pretty happy with what happened last night.

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