Lehigh Wrestling Outlook- They're Really Good

Not many teams can have wrestle-offs, sit FOUR All-Americans out, and still put on an entertaining show. Lehigh did just that. They have legitimate National Championship hopefuls in Nate Brown (184), Mason Beckman (133), Mitchell Minotti (157), and Darian Cruz (125), as well as potentially dangerous wrestlers like Randy Cruz (141) and Laike Gardner (149).

As good as Lehigh looks at those spots, they have some other interesting spots that will determine what kind of dual meet team they have. At 174, Ben Haas and Elliot Riddick had a tight wrestle-off the other night, and both are former starters. John Bolich (197) and Max Wessell (285) seem to have the upper hands on those spots. The spot that seems most wide-open is at 165, where no one seems to be a clear-cut favorite.

Lehigh's ambitious schedule unofficially kicks off with Brown, Beckman, and Minotti in the NWCA All-Star match tomorrow. They officially kick off at Bucknell next weekend. They have a very difficult November schedule that has Minnesota, Nebraska, Pitt, and Edinboro on it (Pitt and Edinboro are home). Navy, American, Penn State, and Bloomsburg fill out a light home schedule after New Year's. Rider and Princeton (both 12/5), Oklahoma, Penn, Franklin & Marshall, Cornell, and possibly Harvard fill out the road schedule. Lehigh will also visit the Binghamton Open and Southern Scuffle tournaments this season. EIWA's are at Princeton and the NCAA's are at Madison Square Garden in NYC.

Lehigh could make a lot of noise this season on the mats. Expect this team to be significant at the NCAA Championships in March.

Exit Interviews- Maybe Wrigley Will Celebrate Soon

The Chicago Cubs were rolling. They won 96 games this season, knocked Pittsburgh out in the Wild Card game, and then defeated the hated Cardinals in the NLDS. All that stood between them and the World Series were the New York Mets, a team they beat every time this season. They needed just four out of seven wins now to advance to the World Series, something that hasn't happened in my lifetime. It all seemed to be right there in front of them.

Four games later, the Cubs' season was over, swept out in their own ballpark and sent to a Winter where they will no longer be lovable underdogs, but one of the favorites in the National League. Yes, they haven't won since 1908, but the Cubs have a young, deep squad that probably just needs another ace level pitcher to bring them from long-suffering to dominant in the National League. This team has the manager, the youthful talent, and the money to do it.

There are questions, obviously. Bryant strikes out a lot, can Arrieta repeat this season, what to do with Castro, and other questions about the many young players on this team. The thing is, about 27 other teams would like to be in the Cubs position going into this off-season. The long-suffering fans at Wrigley may finally be able to celebrate soon.

Come Out and Join Us- Senator Bob Casey, Pennsylvania Democrats at Moravian College

Tomorrow afternoon's going to be a very proud moment for me. Tomorrow at 3:30, Lehigh Valley Democrats will rally at Moravian College in Prosser Hall, the main auditorium in the HUB. We'll be joined by our statewide judicial ticket and Senator Robert Casey. Bob Casey, as he's better known, is one of the most popular figures in Pennsylvania, and a damn good Senator. His work on the behalf of the middle class, in search of peaceful solutions to global problems, and to advocate on the behalf of Pennsylvania are second to none.

I graduated from Moravian ten years ago this coming May (God, that sounds bad). Much of our local ticket are alumni as well. It's going to be a very proud day at 1200 Main St. tomorrow afternoon in Bethlehem. I hope those of you reading can come out.

Voter Targeting- They're Not That Into You, Bro

I guess it should be common sense- if you're a Democratic candidate for political office, and I put two potential voters in front of you, one a Republican and the other a Democrat, you will have an easier time convincing the Democrat to vote for you. That seems simple, right? Even if the Republican regularly votes and the Democrat is sporadic, when you are in the final hours of the campaign and need to rack up as many votes as you can, it's easier to simply push someone to vote who is likely to vote for you, rather than convert thousands of people who don't generally agree with you.

For the most part, a candidate with amazing cross-over appeal to the other party might get up to around 30% of the vote. While that's great, and it's worthwhile to try and find those 30% in August and September, or even to use voter scoring models to project out who the Republicans are that you might win, casting a wide drag-net over all the Republicans in the final week of the election is foolish. If you get that 30%, there are still seven out of ten (7 of 10) that are voting for the other guys. You're reminding more people to vote against you than you are reminding to vote for you when you do this.

Let me put this in less mathematic and more applicable terms- if you're a Republican, do you think you appeal to more Democrats than Bernie Sanders, or if you're a Democrat, do you appeal to more Republicans than Donald Trump? The answer is obviously no. Even a mushy-moderate from the other side doesn't appeal to more voters in the party than someone who is in their own mainstream. Why candidates insist on taking the harder road to the desired result is beyond me.

When Stars You Like Support Candidates You Like

I've always liked Christina Aguilera. At first, it was just a teenage boy thing. Then it was a, "damn she can sing" thing. Then it was, she can sing, and she's from Pittsburgh, so she's a PA girl. Now I can add, she has good politics too. Aguilera will host a house-party for Hillary Clinton in Hollywood, apparently. Our conservative friends like to put-down stars for political endorsements, which is pretty sad. Should famous people not have opinions on major political issues? Some of the same conservatives who think that Ted Nugent is great get mad when Bruce Springsteen gets political. It's sort of pathetic.

I'm glad to say that most of the stars I like most are good Democrats. That is by no means a qualification for me listening to music or liking a movie though. I know Steven Tyler is a Republican, for instance, and still love Aerosmith. I'm just much more comfortable knowing that when I go see Jay Z, Dave Grohl, Bruce Springsteen, or the Red Hot Chili Peppers, my money is not going to end up being donated to Marco Rubio.

The Elections I'll Be Watching on Tuesday

On Tuesday, anyone who reads this should be voting. It's your civic duty, and it's the least you can do to live in the most advanced nation in the world. With that said, not all elections are created equally. Some are purely about the personalities of the people involved. Some are about something more. For me, I'm watching for the elections that tell me more. Here are a few of my picks to watch-

• New Jersey Assembly District 38- Timothy Eustace and Joe Lagana face a well-funded Republican effort every two years to knock them off in this Bergen County seat. The always have won. This suburban New York seat tells us a lot about how the seat-rich NYC 'burbs are politically shifting each time.
• Pennsylvania's 37th Senate District- This special election in Allegheny County will tell us how tough Western PA really is going to be for Democrats in 2016. Sure, they should have an honest shot to turn around and win this next year if they lose, but the very idea of losing this close to Pittsburgh should be a worry.
• Virginia's 13th Senate District- Dr. Jill McCabe is challenging Republican Senator Richard Black in Loudoun County. This northern Virginia race could tilt the chamber back to the Democrats.
• Montgomery County District Attorney- If Commissioner and former DA Bruce Castor does not win this race, the Republican Party in Montgomery County officially has become irrelevant for the time being. First Deputy DA Kevin Steele is a strong Democratic candidate, but this is the last bastion of Republican strength in the county. 
• New Jersey Assembly District 2- This race has everything from local issues to national issues. North Jersey casinos and their impact on South Jersey has been a hot issue in this race. Planned Parenthood has been a hot issue in this race. This is a district where both parties currently hold one of the two seats, and both nominated an Atlantic County Freeholder for the other, so this is competitive. 
• Allentown Council- Write-ins never work. Right? Well, if they even are significant on election night, that tells us the damage to the Allentown political establishment from the recent FBI raids. 
• Virginia's 6th and 7th Senate Districts- These two southeastern VA seats could also decide the Senate. They also give us a clue about 2016.

Media Coverage of Ground Campaigns can be an Adventure

I've run a lot of field campaigns, and I should cut a little slack to media types who haven't. It's easy to not understand the ground game side of campaigns for people who haven't worked on them before. Still, when I read this New York Times article, I'm horrified at this depiction of the Bush campaign:

DES MOINES – It is a portrait of deep frustration. Jeb Bush’s campaign has 10 paid staff members in Iowa, it has made 70,380 phone calls to state Republicans and it has collected 5,000 email addresses. For all that, it has recruited just four volunteers statewide and has identified only 1,260 supporters.

They clearly don't understand what they read here. If you just read this as supporters against phone calls, you see a picture of a candidate with no support. I'm going to go out on a limb though and say his campaign has actually talked to 15,000 voters in Iowa at most, out of that 70,380 calls. Your actual contact rate is usually very low on the phones. If he's at 1,260 supporters out of 15,000 calls, he's actually right about where he's polling nationally. That would make more sense than to view this as 1,260 out of 70,380.

There is a good reason to be horrified though, and that's the four volunteers number. There is no substitute for on the ground manpower, and Bush doesn't have it. There is no enthusiasm for his campaign if that number is true, which is pretty remarkable. Iowa Republicans, who have picked such yahoos as Santorum and Huckabee the last two caucuses, appear hellbent on picking another neanderthal in 2016. Candidates like Bush aren't getting traction.

The Times has some of the best political coverage around though, and they got some fascinating stuff in this same article that is worth your reading:

In the weeks before voting begins, the campaign plans to spend $1.36 million on advertising in Iowa, $5.6 million in New Hampshire and $2.7 million in South Carolina. One slide from the report claims that in the six weeks since ads for Mr. Bush began airing in New Hampshire, the share of voters who say they support him when contacted by the campaign has doubled, to 14.8 percent.

It is unclear why the full strategy memo surfaced now. It may have been leaked to encourage a campaign shake-up, to communicate strategy to the Bush-affiliated “super PAC,” or to lower expectations for Mr. Bush in Iowa.

The campaign has set a goal of winning 18.45 percent of the votes on caucus night, Feb. 1. It predicts total Republican turnout will be 128,800, slightly more than in 2012. Four years ago, Rick Santorum won Iowa with 29,839 votes (Mitt Romney received 29,805 votes), but it is unclear where Mr. Bush would place in the much broader field if he somehow manages to hit his goal of almost 24,000 votes.

Bush looks pretty much toasted to me. We'll see if he can hang in there. 

The End of the Long, Windy Road

Speaker Boehner from the Speaker's Balcony

When he wakes up tomorrow, Congressman John Boehner of Ohio will not be Congressman anymore- for the first time in 25 years. He will have resigned as Speaker and as a member of the House and moved on in life at age 65. He came to office in 1990 as a 40 year old troublemaker from the right, and left office as a 65 year old establishment figure that the troublemakers tried to undo.

For all the bad things I could write about John Boehner, from his inability to control the Tea Party crazies, to his unwillingness to allow a vote on immigration reform, to his willingness to allow his caucus to walk the nation into shutdowns and near defaults on the national debt, I can't help but feel a bit for the guy as he leaves. In as far as we should judge Congressmen for their actual work product, how they vote on the issues, Boehner was one of the most conservative Congressmen to ever walk the halls of the capitol, and yet he became the sober-minded person in the Republican Party that you could believe wouldn't actually damage American society to just get his way. He was vilified on the right for being unwilling to live in a fantasy world. I came to respect him almost as much as I disliked his voting record, politics, and party.

From 2007 until Thursday, John Boehner was a part of one of the most stable periods of Congressional leadership in America's history. Boehner, former Speaker and current Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and former Senate Majority Leader and current Minority Leader Harry Reid have all been leading their caucuses in Congress since early January of 2007, a period of nearly nine years. The negotiations between them always include posturing and arguing, but they generally have arrived at some kind of conclusion. We know that Reid will also leave in 2017, and that there could be more upheaval ahead. I consider this to be the beginning of the end of the Obama era, the point where we are shifting our thinking towards the next President and the next paradigm of American politics. I'm actually happy to think that way too. Perhaps as new figures emerge as the leading names in American politics, we can get away from the ghoulish obstruction, the manufactured crises, and the stagnation that plagues Washington. Maybe not though too. For Boehner and the others' faults, they didn't want to make trouble for the general public more than they had to. Lord knows what will replace them.

Happy Halloween- Saturday, October 31st, 2015

Three year-old me, with my grandparents

Friday's are Awesome

Happy Friday, October 30th, 2015

Citi Field will host it's first World Series game tonight.
Here I am at the Jackie Robinson rotunda, at Citi.

Exit Interviews- It's Not 1993 in Toronto

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

There was no team in baseball more fun to watch in 2015 than the Toronto Blue Jays, a team that had the best line-up in the game from end-to-end. The Jays went all in this seasons, trading prospects to grab David Price, Troy Tulowitzki, and even Ben Revere, all adding up to a team that won their first AL East title in 22 years.

The Blue Jays now look towards a future where maybe they will have Price, and maybe they won't. They have the best line-up in the game going into next season, but the health and age of that line-up will be question marks going into 2016. Josh Donaldson will have to repeat 2015, Jose Bautista is a year older, and Tulo will need to stay healthy. It will be interesting to see if they can be the same team.

The 2015 season was a fun one in Toronto. Moving forward, they could have a lot more fun in 2016, but they will need to bolster their pitching staff. It will be a pivotal Winter.

Week Nine Predictions

The NFL is reaching the mid-point, college football is in the stretch run, and high school football is down to it's last two weeks. The weather is about to get cold-cold, not just cold, and the football is getting hot. Let's get to this week's picks.

High School

• Easton 28 Freedom 21
• Parkland 38 Nazareth 21
• Stroudsburg 42 Northampton 14
• Liberty 35 Central Catholic 21
• Bethlehem Catholic 49 Allen 7
• Dieruff 28 East Stroudsburg South 7
• Whitehall 28 Emmaus 21
• East Stroudsburg North 35 Pocono Mt. West 7
• Pleasant Valley 28 Pocono Mt. East 0
• Notre Dame 35 Saucon Valley 28
• Southern Lehigh 42 Catasauqua 7
• Northwestern 35 Northern Lehigh 28
• Salisbury 28 Palmerton 14
• Wilson 28 Bangor 7
• Palisades 35 Pen Argyl 7
• Belvidere 28 Arthur L. Johnson 0
• Warren Hills 28 Scotch Plains 21

College

• Pitt 28 UNC 24
• Penn State 31 Illinois 21
• Notre Dame 31 Temple 17
• Wisconsin 42 Rutgers 17
• Bucknell 38 Lafayette 7
• Lehigh 24 Georgetown 21
• Moravian 28 Gettysburg 14

NFL

• Patriots 31 Dolphins 21
• Chiefs 20 Lions 17
• Chargers 31 Ravens 21
• Vikings 24 Bears 10
• Cardinals 17 Browns 10
• Steelers 34 Bengals 31
• Titans 13 Texans 10
• Giants 24 Saints 21
• Rams 27 49ers 3
• Falcons 17 Buccaneers 10
• Jets 24 Raiders 17
• Seahawks 24 Cowboys 10
• Packers 27 Broncos 21
• Panthers 24 Colts 14

What We Learned, Week Eight of Football

What we learned last week-

• The Eagles are who they are. They are not a contender to defeat teams like Carolina, Green Bay, or Atlanta. Cam Newton threw three interceptions, the defense played relatively well, and yet they could not win. At some point you accept reality.
• Football is alive in New York. Both teams have winning records, and the Giants are back in first. The Jets look like the better team, but the Patriots are in the way.
• I went 8-6 on the week, and I'm 63-43 in NFL games this year. I'm struggling.
• Temple gets to go into the Notre Dame game undefeated and the center of attention. Good for them. It's a long time coming.
• Penn State is bowl bound. Given that they aren't a national title or Big Ten title contender, the season is a success now, I guess.
• Pitt is 6-1. They are quietly a really good team. Their one loss was to Iowa, who is really, really good.
• I went 6-1 on college games this week, and I'm 43-11 on the year.
• I've been really good at picking high school games, but I got Easton wrong. They absolutely had to beat Liberty to have a shot at the playoffs. They did it easily. I thought they'd get crushed. Now they'll face Freedom, who just lost their first game. Should be interesting.
• It's safe to call Parkland the best team in the area.
• Phillipsburg still has one loss. This season is somewhat like last season, so far for them.
• I went 13-5 this week on high school games, my worst week yet. I'm 108-28 on the season though.
• My week record was 27-12. My season record is 214-82.

Happy Thursday, October 29th, 2015

The Philadelphia 76ers Season Preview

Tonight when the Philadelphia 76ers take the court with the trendy pick to be good Boston Celtics, they will do so with a young, hungry squad that should show at least some signs of improvement in 2015-2016. Absolutely no one is picking them to contend for .500 or a playoff berth, but I think people would be disappointed if they aren't at least a little better than the 18-64 mark last season.

Jahlil Okafor is the big addition, an addition I panned as repetitive on draft night and now think was the greatest pick ever (stable opinions, I know). He provides the Sixers with an offensive presence in the paint that they have not had in quite some time. As his defensive game progresses, he could become a dominant big man. Nerlens Noel, last year's big addition, has the opposite issue. I expect him to dominate the paint defensively as a power forward this season, and we all hope that his offensive game continues to progress. They are the two most pivotal developmental pieces on this team, as their ability to mesh together and co-exist in the paint is crucial to this re-build working out.

The other really interesting addition to this squad is Nik Stauskas, the 8th overall pick in the 2014 draft. The former Michigan star did struggle as a rookie, but has plenty of promise, and time on this roster, to blossom yet. Christian Wood, a player who went from a potential first rounder to undrafted in the 2015 draft, also made the roster and intrigues me a lot. Kendall Marshall joined the team through free agency and Carl Landry through the trade that brought Stauskas over, both adding some veteran presence to this squad. Robert Covington is back and hopefully can build on a solid season last year, and Tony Wroten will return from his torn ACL soon as well. Isaiah Canaan will man the point while the Sixers let Marshall and Wroten heal. Jerami Grant is back and Richaun Holmes joins him in the front court. T.J. McConnell won the last guard spot on this team, while JaKarr Sampson and Hillis Thompson will be swingmen. Joel Embiid is on the roster and won't play a game.

Realistically, Boston and Toronto are probably better teams going into the season. The Sixers would do really, really well to finish third and maybe make the post-season. If they make the post-season though, they'd run right into a Cleveland, Chicago, Washington type of team who will run them out of the building and knock them out fast. This team is probably best served finishing between ninth and twelfth in the conference, but third in the division. That's really hopeful stuff though.

I see the Sixers going 29-53, which is extremely hopeful, but speaks to the belief I have in Okafor, Noel, and Stauskas blossoming this year. That would mark an 11 game improvement, and set them up in 2016-2017 to be a playoff team. If they actually do improve by 11 games, you could bet on an Okafor Rookie-of-the-Year campaign, and improvement up and down the roster. I think it's possible. We also shouldn't get too caught up in it quite yet either way.

The Sixers have four draft picks in the first round this coming June. Yes, four. So this should be the last year where the expectations aren't for the team to be playoff bound. For now though, hope to see an improved team that has young players developing into good NBA players- at least we hope.

Exit Interviews- Red Bird Blues, Their Version of 2011

(This is a reprint from Richard the Third)

Four years ago, a St. Louis Cardinals team that needed an epic Atlanta collapse to get into the post-season beat a 102 win Phillies team that had dominated baseball all season. That team went on to win the World Series, their second in the new millennium. They were young, a grinder team that never let you off the hook. They had good at-bats every time up, solid starting pitching, and a really good bullpen. Their pinch-hitters were a nightmare for opponents. They were a tough team to beat. It seemed like they were destined for more titles when they ended the Nationals season in 2012 and had a 3-1 lead on the San Francisco Giants, but they fell apart. Then the 2013 version got run over by the team of destiny, the Boston Red Sox, in the World Series. The 2014 teams lost, again to San Francisco, and time seemed to be slipping away.

The 2015 St. Louis Cardinals had the best record in baseball, won 100 games, and won the best division in baseball. It’s hard to not call that kind of season a success, but today I’m sure it doesn’t feel like one to the Cards. For the fourth straight year they will come up short in the post-season, this time to a young, upstart team not unlike their 2011 version. This team happened to be their in-division arch-rivals from Chicago, and the Cardinals just couldn’t seem to keep up. The pitching wasn’t quite there (after game one) and losing Molina killed them down the stretch. For the first time in several years, there are reasons to doubt the Cardinals will be the kings of the central anymore, moving forward.

While the Cubs have an envious amount of young talent, the mighty Cardinals system is down a little bit from two and three years ago. Yes, they are still supplying the Piscotty’s of the world, who are pretty damn good, but they aren’t supplying boatloads of premium talent like they were. While they won 100, the Pirates won 98 and the Cubs 97, and both are younger teams. The Cardinals may be facing a reality where they aren’t the favorites anymore, sometime soon.

To be fair, this may have been an anomaly based on a few bad timed injuries. I’m sure Adam Wainwright will have something to say on whether or not the Cards are good next year. Even so, for the first time in a half decade plus, there are questions to ask in St. Louis.

Exit Interviews- Dodger Blues

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

(This is a reprint from Richard the Third)

What is a billion dollars worth? Two runs in game five from your offense? Two losses from your two aces? One postseason series win in three straight playoff appearances? Re-runs of 1988 in the off-season?

I’m not sure anymore.

The front office in Los Angeles decided last off-season to build a strong defensive metrics line-up to compliment their top flight pitching. Their pitching battled some injuries behind the big two, their offense got no-hit a couple of times, and in the playoffs they came up flat. The Dodgers just couldn’t hit enough. Inserting Seager at shortstop and getting back Kendricks didn’t help them much at all, and not getting Puig going left them without that dangerous bat they needed. The Dodgers struggled more than a bit with putting runs on the board, and their defense was no help when they would fall behind. They struggled with first tier pitching all season, and it did them in.

Don Mattingly certainly was an issue, making several questionable post-season moves. Kershaw and Greinke going 2-2 in the series was surprising too. Either way, the end result had more to do with an offense that got no-hit twice in August, and just couldn’t get runs in during October. It’ll be a long Winter in LA.

Come Rally With Senator Casey on Sunday

This Sunday, Senator Casey and the statewide Judicial ticket will come to Bethlehem to rally with Lehigh Valley Democrats. The event begins at 3:30 pm this Sunday, November 1st, 2015. It will be at the United Steelworkers Van Bittner Hall, 53 E. Lehigh St., Bethlehem, PA 18018. There is a Facebook event here.

Come on out and meet the candidates and enjoy the crowd.

Marco Rubio Should Resign- and Not be Nominated

Marco Rubio hates his current job, so promote him... ?

Marco Rubio is a U.S. senator. And he just can’t stand it anymore.

“I don’t know that ‘hate’ is the right word,” Rubio said in an interview. “I’m frustrated.”

This year, as Rubio runs for president, he has cast the Senate — the very place that cemented him as a national politician — as a place he’s given up on, after less than one term. It’s too slow. Too rule-bound. So Rubio, 44, has decided not to run for his seat again. It’s the White House or bust.

“That’s why I’m missing votes. Because I am leaving the Senate. I am not running for reelection,” Rubio said in the last Republican debate, after Donald Trump had mocked him for his unusual number of absences during Senate votes.

This is a unique argument. I hate my current job, it's hard, so promote me to President. That's hard to argue. So a Florida paper that endorsed him isn't buying it-

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel editorial board agrees.

In a ferocious editorial, the paper makes the same demand. "Marco Rubio should resign, not rip us off."

Sorry, senator, but Floridians sent you to Washington to do a job. We've got serious problems with clogged highways, eroding beaches, flat Social Security checks and people who want to shut down the government.

If you hate your job, senator, follow the honorable lead of House Speaker John Boehner and resign it.

The editorial notes Rubio's Senate salary -- $174,000 a year -- and compares Rubio's attendance unfavorably with Sens. Rand Paul and Bernie Sanders, both of whom are also running for president but who have not seen the same level of absenteeism. (Since July, Paul has missed 12 of 81 votes; Sanders has missed four.)

For $174,000 a year, I would show up for work. Marco doesn't have those rules though- those rules are for other people:

The Sun-Sentinel also bashed Rubio for appearing in the Senate to criticize federal workers that weren't doing their jobs, something we noted last week. "You said, 'there is really no other job in the country where if you don't do your job, you don't get fired,'" the editorial board wrote. "With the exception of your job, right?"

"By choosing to stay in the Senate and get the publicity, perks and pay that go with the position — without doing the work — you are taking advantage of us," they wrote, concluding, "Either do your job, Sen. Rubio, or resign it."

Maybe Rubio is doing us a favor though. He was for immigration reform, before he was against it. He opposes normalization with Cuba. He doesn't support the Affordable Care Act, despite taking the subsidy to have it. Rubio has been a legislator for a long time, and he's not all that good at it. Take for instance his support for the "Scarlet Letter" Law in the Florida Assembly:

Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was among the Florida state legislators who voted for the so-called “Scarlet Letter” law in 2001 that required single mothers to publish their sexual histories in the newspaper in order to place their babies up for adoption.

Five U.S. congressmen – Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart (R), Lois Frankel (D), Jeff Miller (R), Gus Bilirakis (R) and Dennis Ross (R) – were state legislators at the time and voted for the controversial bill. Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D), Frederica Wilson (D), Daniel Webster (R), and Bill Posey (R), who were also state legislators back then, voted against it.

The law, which passed with overwhelming majorities in the House and Senate, required unwed moms who wished to put their babies up for adoptions to post details about their recent sexual encounters in the newspaper in an attempt to contact the father, even if the woman was a victim of rape or incest. The purpose of the bill was to inform estranged biological fathers that their children were being adopted and give them the chance to intervene.

What a disgusting vote. What a disgusting guy. Marco, go home, and stop bothering America.

Happy Wednesday, October 28th, 2015

Shorter Trey- We Got Schooled

Trey Gowdy knew it the minute last week's Benghazi hearing was over- Hillary Clinton took his committee to the woodshed. Since then, he's said things to the effect that there wasn't much new testimony, then that she wasn't really that honest with the committee, and the best one now, that it should have been done in private. That's code for, we got whipped.

Matt Taibbi pretty well took down this committee with his Rolling Stone piece. From that:

The overriding implication of the Benghazi hearing seemed to be that Hillary Clinton was so crass, unfeeling and politically self-involved as to not care if members of her State Department were massacred. Again, Hillary has a lot of flaws, but we're supposed to believe that she doesn't have a problem with dead Americans? Seriously?

This is the same kind of abject stupidity we saw in the 9/11 Truth movement, which believed unquestioningly that a whole bund of Bush administration officials was willing to see Americans murdered en masse in order to further some convoluted world domination scheme.

He had more:

The look on Gowdy's face at this moment was priceless. He was proud, like a 3-year-old who went potty all by himself. But what was he even talking about? That Hillary Clinton cares more about the lives of Libyan strangers than she does her own employees? Was that seriously the idea?

Then you had that Kansas windbag, Mike Pompeo, sarcastically offering to bring breakfast in to help Hillary answer questions more expeditiously. The preposterous implication was that he, Pompeo, was the time-aggrieved party here, suffering delays because Hillary wouldn't give simple "yes" or "no" answers in the middle of his and Gowdy's 11-hour nothingburger of a hearing marathon.

Pompeo went on to sarcastically quote "noted conservative" Diane Feinstein, who said that the "incidents…were likely preventable." Then, pleased with his gotcha question, he asked if Hillary agreed with Feinstein.

And more:

Then there was Alabama Republican Martha Roby, who reminded me of a bowling alley manager worried to death that she didn't have enough size 9s to get through a Friday night. Roby looked terrified, like she just wanted to make it through to the end without mispronouncing all of those foreign locations.

Her shtick at one point devolved into questions about a) the fact that Hillary went home on the night of the attacks, instead of staying in the office, and b) the idea that Hillary waited too long to personally call the survivors of the Benghazi attack.

And he comes to this logical response to these cavemen and women:

These morons in Gowdy's committee were so bent on proving that Hillary is an unfeeling, ambition-crazed schemer bent on riding gleefully to the White House on the corpses of Benghazi victims that they ended up making her look like the one thing she really isn't, at least not very often: a regular person.

Most of us who watched the fiasco imagined what we would do in her position, facing that same ludicrous barrage of circular questions. Most normal people would have done all of the same things she did: sighing, choking back angry retorts, shaking a head in disbelief at times, even laughing at the absurdity of it all.

Actually many people would have lost it early on and grabbed Gowdy by his goofy silver fro-hawk somewhere in hour six or seven, a fact that made Hillary by contrast look patient and presidential, in ways her campaign had been unable to achieve all year.

And here in lies the folly of Gowdy's committee. It's the old, "you had one job" retort after someone screws up. The one job that the Republicans had on this committee was to look like serious people. Try to not be fire breathing morons that try hard to de-humanize a human. Hillary obviously was solid in her own right, but the amazing thing was how bad the Republicans on the committee really did. They chased conspiracy theories, made wild accusations, and were just mean- all in a hearing that was destined to be a waste of time anyway.

All of this brings me back to the main point here, which is Gowdy's response itself, which is fascinating to me. I don't think this man's that terribly stupid, and his responses are some of the most honest, straight-forward "we lost" type of rhetoric you'll ever hear in politics. He's trying to keep a brave face now, a few days later, but he already let the cat out of the box- the hearing didn't go well. You rarely hear this talk. This isn't usually how the defeated react.

Which also gets to my main point- the investigative aspect of Congress is it's most useless, and unsuccessful tactic. Yes, you have the power to drag witnesses in to talk, but when you do it all the time, sometimes over trivial matters (think steroids in baseball), you ruin the effect. This was not the Watergate hearings. This time, the witness won. That's because this tired spectacle is an exercise we'd best stop using as a country. It doesn't serve a purpose. 

2015-2016 NBA Predictions

Without any fanfare, here is my predictions for the new NBA season:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Playoff Teams

1. Cleveland (64-18)
2. Washington
3. Chicago
4. Boston
5. Milwaukee
6. Atlanta
7. Toronto
8. Miami (41-41)

Teams out, in order-

• Charlotte
• Indiana
• Brooklyn
• Philadelphia
• New York
• Detroit
• Orlando

Cleveland beats Washington in the Conference Finals, Milwaukee in the semi-finals, and Miami in round one. Washington beats Chicago in the semi-finals and Toronto in round one. Milwaukee beats Boston in round one. Chicago beats Atlanta in round one.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Playoff Teams

1. Oklahoma City (62-20)
2. LA Clippers
3. Golden State
4. Houston
5. San Antonio
6. Memphis
7. New Orleans
8. Portland (42-40)

Teams out, in order-

• LA Lakers
• Dallas
• Phoenix
• Denver
• Utah
• Minnesota
• Sacramento

San Antonio beats Houston in round one, Oklahoma City in the semi-finals, and the LA Clippers in the conference finals. The Clippers beat New Orleans in round one and Memphis in the semi-finals. Oklahoma City beats Portland in round one. Memphis beats Golden State in round one.

NBA Finals-

Cleveland beats San Antonio in seven.

NBA MVP- 

LeBron James

My 2015 World Series Preview

Oh, the quagmire. I love New York City unlike any other place I go. It's the best. I hate the New York Mets unlike any other team in sports. It's almost instinct at this point. I love going to Citi Field, but I'm not a fan of the team at all. They are the rivals of the Philadelphia Phillies. We've had some recent epic races with each other. For that reason, it was really easy to root against the New York Mets in this year's playoffs. Easy, even though they have a fun young team that keeps you interested every day.

So tonight the World Series will begin in Kansas City, with the Royals in their second straight Fall Classic, trying to bring home the crown they failed to win last year. They've shown amazing fight, coming back from near elimination against Houston, and putting down the best offense in baseball from Toronto. The Mets meanwhile hung tough in winning a five game series against the Dodgers, then steam-rolled the supposedly fate-driven Chicago Cubs in a sweep to win the NLCS. The Royals have an exciting line-up with some very good starting pitchers. The Mets have elite starting pitching and a good line-up.

I think the Mets will get it done. They have the arms, they are hot right now, and they are Gotham. Little Kansas City certainly has been close before, sure, but they didn't get it done then, and you can argue that the Mets have four arms that are on par with San Francisco's ace from last year, on pure talent. I just think the Mets stay hot and win this series, ending their futility that has plagued them since 1986.

I'll be pulling for Kansas City to get it done though, all the way.

Exit Interviews- The Future is Bright in Houston

(This is a reprint from Richard the III)

Losing is awful. Being just a few outs from going to the ALCS, only to lose a series, is awful. Astros fans are still probably hurting from game four at Minute Maid Park. I have good news though for Astros fans- there are more opportunities for this group. You never know if you’ll be back or not, but if you wanted to bet on one team to be back in this post-season, it’s the Astros. Their whole line-up made roughly what A-Rod made this season, and yet they lead the AL West until very late in the season, before settling for the AL’s second Wild Card.

The Astros just need to be patient. They have a surplus of talent, and some of it hasn’t even blossomed yet. They have good, young arms in their rotation, and they play good defense. Their manager is solid too. The future is really bright for this team.

Yes, the Rangers are in the way, and yes, this rivalry will be fun. With that said, the Houston Astros have a future as bright as any team in baseball’s, moving forward.

Exit Interviews- Texas Hold 'Em

(This is a reprint from Richard the III)

When the Texas Rangers made their blockbuster trade with Philadelphia for Cole Hamels, the plan was for this to pay off in 2016. A healthy Yu Darvish would join with Hamels to form a formidable top of the rotation. Some of their younger pieces would be in place, and the team would be re-tooled from their 2010 and 2011 runs to the World Series. That was the plan, of course, until they won the AL West and went up 2-0 in the divisional series against the Blue Jays. Then their games three and four starters didn’t have good stuff, their bullpen didn’t hold up, Adrian Beltre was hurt, and Jose Bautista happened. Now, it’s a long off-season ahead.

Here’s the good news- the Rangers have a one-two punch in their rotation, a good line-up, and great system to work with. They are as well run of a team as there is in that division. They do have some aging offensive stars that should worry them, but frankly they can survive that with their talented minor leagues. Making sure they have an adequate #3 arm next season should be key to them contending again in a tough division. You have to like their chances.

On Tuesday, Vote Democratic

I hear the refrain far too many times- I don't vote for the party, I vote for the person. I hear it from people that voted for Barack Obama, but voted for Charlie Dent. I hear it from people who voted for Tom Wolf, but voted for Julie Harhart. I hear it for people who voted for Cory Booker, but voted for Chris Christie. They self-describe as Democrats. They also self-describe as voting for individuals, and not the party. They do so as though Charlie Dent doesn't vote with the Republicans 85% of the time in Congress (he does). They do so as though Julie Harhart doesn't vote for the Republican budget against Governor Wolf (she does). They do so as though Christie hasn't vetoed bills to fund public education, protect the public from gun violence, or protect the environment- all things that Booker does after they vote for him (Christie did all of those things). None of these allegedly moderate Republicans is really different from the crazies that forced Speaker Boehner out of office, on substance, but their presentation seems to convince people who disagree with them that they are okay.

I say this because there are elections in one week, and a lot of people ask me why they matter? What is the difference between a Democrat and a Republican on the Superior Court? What is the difference between a Democratic County Controller and a Republican one? What is the difference between a Democratic Township Supervisor and a Republican one? Why should you vote Democrat, and not Republican, in this election. That is a great question, one that I answer like this:

• A Republican Supreme Court will clear the way for the current gerrymandered Congressional districts again in the 2021 map. They did so in 2011. For that reason, a state with a majority Democrats has a 13-5 Republican tilt in their Congressional delegation in Washington, and there are no more than one or two districts that can even be competitive.
• A Republican County Council will consider selling Gracedale Nursing Home in Northampton County, while a Democratic Council will not. The two competitive seats both have this stark divide. John Cusick voted to sell the home before, and Matt Dietz has said he would do so now. Both Democratic nominees oppose selling the home.
• A Democratic Judge on the Commonwealth Court struck down the Republican Voter ID Law that our State House's current Speaker said would help Mitt Romney win Pennsylvania. A Republican Judge will not do so.
• The Republican candidate for Northampton County Controller voted for a massive tax increase last year, while the Democratic incumbent did not support the tax increase.
• The Democratic candidate for Bethlehem Township Supervisor supports saving the Green Pond, while the Republican candidate does not.

I could do this for every race, but the point is clear as day- there are actual substance differences. Democrats are not inherently better people than Republicans, but elections aren't about electing the nicer guy, they are about electing the person who best represents your views. Northampton County has not gone Republican for President since I was a child, and yet has more Republicans elected at the county level right now than Democrats. They do a very nice job of obscuring their positions, and getting voters to vote based on nonsense. There is a real, live, tangible difference between the two parties on the substance issues up and down the ballot, and that difference matters. I hope you're on the same side as me, and you vote Democratic up and down the ballot.

It's Time to Help Puerto Rico

From World Atlas

Puerto Rico is broke. It's got a $72 billion debt, and it can't re-pay it. Left alone, the island will simply default, without the benefit of bankruptcy protections that mainland states, counties, and municipalities have. The island needs help, now. The Obama Administration has offered a plan:

The Obama administration last week offered the outline of a rescue plan to help the island and the 3.5 million American citizens who live there. The plan would impose new oversight on the island’s finances and expand access to government programs like Medicaid and the earned-income tax credit. Crucially, it asks Congress to change the law so that Puerto Rico’s territorial government and its municipalities can seek bankruptcy protection.

Of course, there is another side to this- investors who don't want to "take a haircut" on what they are owed. They say belt-tightening can work. I believe the New York Times answers that charge more effectively than I can here:

Many investors who have lent money to Puerto Rico and stand to lose under any debt restructuring are bitterly opposed to the Obama plan. They say Puerto Rico can repay all of its debt if it tightens its belt and privatizes utilities and other government-owned businesses. Changing the law now, they argue, is deeply unfair. But the record of what has happened in troubled countries like Greece is clear: Austerity policies have only worsened the crisis. As for the fairness argument, legislators change laws all the time to meet new circumstances.

By doing what needs to be done now, we can avoid future defaults, and put Puerto Rico on a pathway to prosperity. It is not in our interests to have them default. It is not in our interests to have them fail. Yes, their elected officials have, in the past, run the country broke. It's important that we remember though, it's not about the past-

There is no doubt that Puerto Rican leaders have mismanaged the island’s finances and economy. What’s at issue now, though, is not Puerto Rico’s past but its future and that of its inhabitants. If Congress doesn’t like the administration’s ideas, it needs to come up with its own.

Congress must act. It's in everyone's best interests. 

Happy Tuesday, October 27th, 2015

Chris Christie is a Disgrace to New Jersey

It's one thing to not know facts. It's another thing to be a liar. When you're both? Ouch.

Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie blasted President Obama on Sunday for "justifying" the Black Lives Matter movement, which the New Jersey governor says has called for the killing of law enforcement officials.

"The problem is this, there's lawlessness in this country," Christie said. "The president encourages this lawlessness. He encourages it."

"He does not support the police, he doesn't back up the police, he justifies Black Lives Matter," he added.

The president spoke Thursday at a White House forum on the problem of police violence among African-American communities, defending the movement as something that "we, as a society, particularly given our history, have to take this seriously."

But when pressed on whether the Black Lives Matter shouldn't be justified at all, Christie said: "I don't believe that movement should be calling for the murder of police officers."

When host John Dickerson interrupted to say that "they're not calling for the murder of police officers," Christie fired back.

"Sure, they are," the New Jersey Republican responded. "They've been chanting in the streets for the murder of police officers."

The bully who's administration shut down the George Washington Bridge to get back at opponents is calling someone else lawless? He's misquoting the President and making up his own set of facts about the BLM movement. Everything about this is garbage.

Yes, the President showed support for the movement in his comments. What he said was that the Black Lives Matter movement is justified because clearly the statistics show us that African-Americans are more likely to be killed in altercations with police officers, so we should have a discussion on this, and allow the social movement to make change in this country. He did not say he supported lawlessness, or some image that Governor Christie has of "armed thugs" roving our streets, killing cops. The Governor is creating a false narrative, making up charges of people calling for cop killings, to appeal to a racist base of voters who believe anything FOX News tells them. It's disgusting.

Let's not kid ourselves though, who is Chris Christie to accuse anyone else of lawless behavior? Aside from the GW Bridge situation, we shouldn't forget that the Governor got himself tossed off the Amtrak train this weekend for being loud in the quiet car. I guess the rules don't apply to him though. Great example for the public there, Chris! 

Exit Interviews- a Short Buctober

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

(This is a reprint from Richard the III)

I thought this was the year. The Pittsburgh Pirates had been to the playoffs the two previous years, and seemed prime to break out. They did, in the sense that they had the second best record in baseball this year. For the second straight year though, a dominant starting pitcher came into PNC Park in the Wild Card Game and slammed the door in their face. This time it was even worse though, as it was an upstart from their own division doing it to them, in their park.

Obviously the Pirates have to address their Cubs issue, and specifically their Jake Arrieta issue, if they are going to get over the top. They had their chances against him, and seemed both unlucky and lost at the same time. You simply can’t be a lock to lose to a pitcher five or six times in your own division each year and think you’re going to win that division. They have to figure that out, or get personnel who will.

Forget that though, because really the Pirates face a larger issue. They are no longer the feel-good story they were in 2013, they are a team with three playoff appearances in a row and no NLCS games. Their owners have to make a decision to go for it, and soon. Yes, it’s nice to lock up the home-grown talent in the form of Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole, but is that going to be enough? Does this team not need to go get another top of the rotation arm that can throw against an Arrieta? Do they not need to go and get a mega-bat, possibly at first base, to boost their offense. They have a deep staff and play good defense, but they don’t necessarily have an intimidating rotation or loaded offense right now. They have a wonderful outfield. They could use a little more though.

And so, the Pirates enter the off-season disappointed in a season where they had the second best record in the game. They need to give their GM the ability to upgrade this roster a little bit more, meaning spend money, to put this team over the top. If they don’t do that, we’ve basically seen their peak as a group.

Exit Interviews- And Down Goes the Yankees

Photo by Richard Wilkins III

(This is a reprint from Richard the III)

And so, just like that, the Yankees return to the post-season is over. It feels about right, as they were never going to contend to win it all, right? This team was picked to finish deep in the second division this season, and had all kinds of old, troublesome roster spots. To the non-Yankee fan who watched, they over achieved.

The Yankees, moving forward, are not the team of A-Rod, CC, Beltran, or other aging stars. It’ll be about Severino, Judge, Bird, and the other young guys they brought in. Here’s the good news for Yankees fans- the infield of the future is here. Bird, Refsnyder, Gregorius, and Headley actually could stick for a few years, and provide a huge upgrade defensively on where they’ve been in recent years. The late inning bullpen arms are all there, and all very good. The rotation of the future will include the Eovaldis, Severinos, and the Pinedas and Novas if they can stay healthy. The Yankees actually only need a couple of good pieces to be the next young, upstart team going somewhere. They are well on their way to something good.

It just won’t be the 2009 team. Obviously Jeter is gone now, and frankly the other old guys on this team are approaching that point. Tex will be very available this Winter, and A-Rod is always out there, if you’ll pay him. The Yankees should certainly move one of their starting outfielders- preferably Beltran or Ellsbury over Gardner- to get themselves space for Judge. It’s time for this team to move on from their past, and if they are going to contend in the AL, they will do so this Winter. If they try to hang on again, next season will not be any more magical in the Bronx.

The Best Athlete in Philadelphia Is.....

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

People like to debate who the best sports team in Philadelphia is. Is it the 99 loss Phillies, because they won the last title? Is it the Eagles, who have went 20-12 the last two years, but haven't won a playoff game since 2008, or a championship since 1960? Is it the Sixers, who have been a bottom three team in the league the last couple years, but have lots of high pick talent? Is it the Flyers, who have missed two of the last three playoffs, but have some prolific goal-scorers?

Ugh, pick the Union.

Seriously though, as someone who likes all the teams, I am recently more intrigued by who the best athlete is on the "major four" teams in the city. It's a tough argument. Who is the face of the city? Here's my top ten:

1. Fletcher Cox- This defensive lineman will be good for years and years to come, and is dominant right now. This may not be the most exciting pick, but it's the right one.
2. Claude Giroux- The captain hasn't made the team great yet, but his stats don't lie. He is the face of the Flyers right now.
3. Jason Peters- A year ago, he was #1. This season, there has been some slippage. Still, he's got the best career resume in the city right now.
4. Jakub Voracek- In a city that is starved for All-Stars, he's pretty good.
5. Maikel Franco- The third baseman showed flashes of the greats a few years back that brought the city a title.
6. Jahlil Okafor- No, he hasn't played a game yet, and yes, I hated this pick on draft night. A lot has changed since then, and he's made a fan of me with his off-season performance and work.
7. Connor Barwin- The Eagles linebacker is not only really good, but he's a fan favorite.
8. Nerlens Noel- He should have been Rookie of the Year. You heard it here first.
9. Ken Giles- 100 Miles Giles is the best player on the Phillies currently, though he pitches just one inning a night (or so we hope).
10. Wayne Simmonds- He's not the best player on the Flyers, but he's certainly my pick as the best liked. He's also pretty good.

Honorable mention goes to the (falling) DeMarco Murray, Odubel Herrera (I feel a little Jimmy Rollins in him), Sam Bradford (I have to put the QB here, right?), and Aaron Nola. 

The Eagles are Basically What They've Been

The Eagles 27-16 loss at Carolina last night was only really surprising if you thought this team would win the Super Bowl, something I never thought they could do. When the team was 1-3 a couple weeks ago, I wasn't sure they'd be as good as I thought they'd be, but now at 3-4, I'm confident they will be a relevant team down the stretch. The Eagles are basically who I thought they were, a team that should win 9-11 games before the season, but will be frustrating to watch at times as the season goes on. They are good enough to get your hopes up, but not good enough to compete with the elite teams in the NFC.

The Birds have a nice defense. Even last night, they gave up 24 points until the offense turned the ball over deep in their own end at the end of the game. When the Eagles win, they hold the team in the low 20s and have to hope the offense can keep up. The offense is not a 30 plus point a game offense this year though. The quarterback isn't good enough. The running game isn't good enough. The offensive line isn't good enough. The receivers aren't good enough. The scheme and play calling, guess what, isn't good enough. The Eagles ran into a defense every bit as good as their own, if not better, and an offense that does what it does very well, and last night resulted in a loss. Carolina is emerging as one of the best teams in the NFC, up there with Green Bay, just ahead of the Arizonas, Atlantas, and surprisingly Minnesotas in the conference. The Eagles are not there right now.

The Eagles are going to have to win the division to reach the playoffs, most likely. While they have a similar record to Seattle, the odds of the Birds out-kicking Seattle down the stretch for a Wild Card isn't likely, and even so, they'd have to beat out a Minnesota or Atlanta, neither of which looks great right now to happen. The Eagles will play a relatively easy schedule in November and December, with only New England, Arizona, and New York having winning records. The Eagles can still win nine or ten games fairly realistically. Obviously the inconsistency is going to make that hard, but it's possible. Thinking beyond that though has always been foolish. The Eagles are not a championship contender.

The Eagles were a ten win team the last two years. This off-season their moves made the defense a bit better, but the offense got a bit worse. It's left them right back where they started. If things go well, they will be a ten win team again, and there could be a playoff game in South Philly this January. If not, this team could flop as far as 6-10. They basically are who we thought they were the last couple of years. Not much has changed. In other words, keep your expectations in check.

GM Hired, Onto the Off-Season for the Phillies

Former Angels Assistant GM Matt Klentak has been hired as the new General Manager of the Philadelphia Phillies. He was basically the front-runner for the job since mid-Summer when Andy MacPhail was announced as the next team President, and the two have worked together before. It's always good when you have a cohesive front office, and the Phillies now have that. Klentak also off-sets some of the perceived weaknesses of MacPhail- mainly that he is young, well-versed in advanced metrics, and has been in baseball the last couple of seasons.

I always say that if you're going to let someone run a front office, you let them actually run it. For as many disagreements as I had with Chip Kelly's off-season for the Eagles, you have to let him make all the moves that he wants to make, so that you can honestly judge his body of work. MacPhail is not being cheated of the authority to do what he wants, because he got to hire the GM of his choice, someone who can speak for him in any room he is put in. Klentak played a big role in the Angels front office this Summer after the GM was fired, and is prepared for this job. Give the Phillies a passing grade for getting a good GM hire, getting most of their coaching situation ironed out early, and getting their 40 man roster down far enough that they have plenty of room to do what they need to do in free agency. The early off-season is a success.

Now though, we move into the real meat of the off-season, the portion that will decide if we're watching another lost season in 2016 or moving forward towards prominence again. We enter this off-season with a core of major leaguers that includes Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola, Odubel Herrera, Jerad Eickhoff, Ken Giles and other young players who showed flashes in 2015. We enter this off-season with 36 players currently on the 40 man roster, and 31 after free agency begins. We enter this off-season with the top pick in the Rule 5 Draft, next year's amateur draft, and next Summer's international number one slot of money. Things actually look up compared to twelve months ago at this time.

The Phillies have serious needs though. A look at next year's roster shows some serious needs, if not to try and contend, at least to try and get the young players through a healthy, more productive season.

• The rotation going in is in dire need of another arm. Nola, Eickhoff, and Adam Morgan are likely to have slots going into camp. Lefty Matt Harrison, obtained in the Cole Hamels trade, could provide a veteran presence in the rotation, but it's hard to see him giving the Phillies 200 innings in 2016 after the amount of injury time he's had the last few years. The Phillies will need a fifth arm, and while they will have Alec Asher, David Buchanan, and Severino Gonzalez on the 40 man, you hope those are AAA arms most of the year, and that they can fill in holes in the rotation as the season goes. The Phillies will need a free agent arm that can give them 185 plus innings in 2016, plus those AAA arms. Jesse Biddle will spend the season on the 60 Day DL after Tommy John surgery, so he won't be a factor, but Zach Eflin and Jake Thompson could help later on this season. Joely Rodriguez future is in the bullpen, if he makes it. Gone are Harang, Billingsley, Williams, and Lee from this roster once free agency starts.
• The bullpen is also in need of another arm. Ken Giles is set as the team's closer, and Elvis Araujo, Luis Garcia, and Jeanmar Gomez are all fine options to be seventh inning guys. Dalier Hinojosa and Hector Neris also threw well enough to be considered to make this team out of camp, and Mario Hollands showed flashes two years ago before missing 2015 with Tommy John surgery, so the Phillies can fill in the bullpen fine. Colton Murray and Nefi Ogando are fine "up and down" pieces with options that will stay on the 40 man roster and occasionally play a role, but need more seasoning in AAA. The Phillies bullpen really desperately needs a steady influence in the late innings though, a veteran set-up man that can hold down the 8th inning and keep the Phillies from using Ken Giles from a lot of four plus out saves. For the sake of many of these younger arms health, adding a solid set-up man this off-season would be very wise.
• The Phillies line-up is mostly set, but one could argue for another outfield bat that can give them at least some starts. They will probably go into next season with a platoon at first between Howard and Ruf, something similar to a platoon at catcher between Rupp and Ruiz, and right now would probably have at least one platoon if they do re-sign Jeff Francoeur, between him and Cody Asche in left. Franco, Herrera, Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez will likely start at third, center, short, and left on Opening Day. One can guess that Aaron Altherr would also start in right, at the moment. While the Phillies could re-sign Francoeur and say they have a line-up in place, they may also want to sign a more starting level bat as well, even if it's not one of the bigger free agent names.
• As is, the Phillies bench is fairly full of platoon partners. If you have platoons at catcher and first at a minimum, you have two bench slots filled that don't give you a lot of other flexibility. Andres Blanco is a fairly safe bet to come back, and this is why you can bet on Francoeur being re-signed as well, he's a good defensive outfielder. Darnell Sweeney is flexible position-wise, but could benefit from regular at-bats in AAA next season. The Phillies will probably have one spot to play with on this bench, whether they re-sign Frenchy or not, and should look for a quality hitter, who grinds out at-bats, and plays several positions. Of course, 29 other teams want that guy too.
• Assuming the Phillies sign a starter, set-up man, and Francoeur, their roster will be at 34 players right there, and they do have to protect several other players. It's a lock that Nick Williams and Roman Quinn will be protected on the 40 man roster. Brock Stassi and Gabriel Lino are also candidates to be protected, since they would be strong Rule 5 candidates. If they protect all four, the Phillies will have 38 spots filled. That would still leave them room to make two Rule 5 selections, possibly an outfielder and a reliever making the most sense. It would not leave them immediate room to add players like Knapp, Thompson, or Eflin to the 40 man roster though.
• The Phillies can be fairly aggressive with minor league deals as well. Jesse Biddle will go to the 60 Day DL at the end of camp, opening a roster spot to be filled by someone who is in camp, but not on the 40 man roster. The Phillies have the luxury of having a spot like this to shop around from the start.

And so that is the off-season ahead. A starting pitcher, a set-up man, at least one outfield bat, a Rule 5 pick or two, and maybe some low-risk chances to see what you have. Now that the Phillies have a GM, they can start targeting their players of choice. With their current payroll down under $100 million, the Phillies are in a good position to fill their needs in free agency, and put an improved product on the field.