Friday, November 13, 2015

The Phillies Roster is Far From Done

The Philadelphia Phillies lost 99 games in 2015. That's really bad, and teams that are that bad are not a player or two away. That's the reason they are willing to listen on trade offers for Ken Giles, and it's the reason why we're hearing their name connected Marcell Ozuna. Yes, the Phillies could view their roster as 80% or more set for 2016 and operate under that mindset, but it's better for them to look straight beyond 2016 and look at ways to add pieces that will be a part of a future contending team. Even if they are similar to the 99 loss team that played this season, that really doesn't matter.

One can look at the 2016 line-up and see a fairly static line-up with Rupp and Ruiz catching, Howard and Ruf sharing first base, Hernandez and Galvis starting the year up the middle, Franco at third, and at least Herrera and Altherr in the starting outfield, with one spot to play with. One can see a bench that includes Asche, Blanco, and room for another outfielder. One can see a rotation that would include Nola, Eickhoff, Morgan, and perhaps a healthy Matt Harrison, with one spot open to a free agent again. One can even see a bullpen where Giles, Garcia, Araujo, Gomez, Hinojosa, and Neris start out as favorites, and guys like Otero, Russell, and Hollands are in the battle in camp. For depth purposes, the Phillies have their Sweeneys, Buchanans, Aschers, Ogandos, and others who will fill out the roster. If you view the team that way, they will make three or four moves this off-season and hope to improve marginally from a 99 loss team to a 92 loss team, or something similar. Call me a healthy skeptic of that approach to viewing this team though.

The 2016 season means absolutely nothing for the Phillies, because they will not contend for a playoff spot. That's why a Ken Giles could be traded with no real replacement ready to step in. That's why Galvis or Hernandez could probably be had for the right price in a trade. It's why, with the exception of Franco and maybe Nola or Eickhoff, this roster is entirely up for grabs on the trade market. Even younger players like Adam Morgan could be a part of packages to get pieces the Phillies view more as part of the longer-term picture. It's why this off-season is as close to unpredictable as any in recent memory. With a new GM who isn't trying to save face for past failures, a horrible team, and free reign to make this team younger, the Phillies could do anything. They can cut players, trade players, sign players, or just ride through 2016 in some spots, as is. Sure, the 2016 team looks fairly static on paper, but I wouldn't not assume anything just yet.

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