Friday, July 1, 2016

The UnReported Story of Hillary's Strength

Hillary Clinton knows better than anyone else that four months is an eternity in politics. She also probably knows that she's ahead. Polling shows her crushing Donald Trump in Iowa of all places, a state that has never really warmed to her like some others. But that's not all:
According to Ballotpedia's battleground poll, Clinton leads Trump:
  • 51% to 37% in Florida
  • 45% to 41% in Iowa
  • 50% to 33% in Michigan
  • 48% to 38% in North Carolina
  • 46% to 37% in Ohio
  • 49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
  • 45% to 38% in Virginia
    Her leads held at nearly the same margins when Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson was included in the poll. And Clinton led Trump 48% to 37% when all states were factored together. With Johnson included, Clinton led Trump 44% to 34%, with Johnson at 13%.

    Yes, Quinnipiac did show the race closer, but the ABC/Washington Post and the NBC/Wall Street Journal Polls both found her comfortably ahead.

    Hillary Clinton's common ground in all the polls is that she leads. She hasn't trailed in a national poll in well past a month now. She doesn't trail in any swing-state polls either. Some show the race closer, some show it further apart, none of them show Trump ahead. Maybe this is about Trump's relative weakness. Maybe it's all about Clinton's campaign. Either way- she's strong right now. The argument that Democrats couldn't nominate her because she'd be sure to lose is basically dead. While she's not a lock to win at this time, FiveThirtyEight sets her odds at 79.2%. What should be more telling is that they are setting current state margins for South Carolina, Mississippi, and Kansas inside of 5% for Trump. That is really not good for him.

    Obviously you won't read about how Hillary might win a blowout victory. If it's over now, why would anyone care about future coverage, which hurts the media outlets. They won't spite themselves to report the facts, so you'll just have to wait until November 8th to hear about it.

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