The Over-Hyped, Faux Story of Pennsylvania's Competitiveness

In 2000, Tom Ridge refused to believe Al Gore had won Pennsylvania. In 2004, George W. Bush ran the same campaign model that won him Ohio and Florida, but John Kerry carried Pennsylvania. In 2008, John McCain tried to resurrect himself as the floor fell in by doing so in Western Pennsylvania. Mitt Romney seemed to have the good sense in 2012 to get the point, but Republicans are saying it again- Donald Trump can win Pennsylvania. They even cite the registration changes above. This will end up like the others.

Pennsylvania is won in Philadelphia's suburbs. Yes, the Western part of the state has trended Republican in recent years, but the population there has dropped. Running a "guns and God" appeal to those voters out there does not win the state for a Republican, in fact it hurts them worse in the Philadelphia region, where people are still moving. While the map above should not make a Democrat feel "good" about things, it's worth noting that most of the registration change is just "Reagan Democrats" actually registering as Republicans, like they vote. It's not new registrants switching. Those people were already in many cases voting Republican. There's no beef in this argument.

In short, Pennsylvania will be competitive, maybe even close, as it always is. One of these days, maybe the Republicans will win it, but if that happens, they probably already won the election. It's worth noting though that elections have actually become more lopsidedly Democratic at the state level. In 2002, Governor Rendell won a large victory. In 2004, Democrats won two out of three state row offices and the Presidential race, only losing for Senate and Attorney General. In 2006, Governor Rendell and Casey won blowouts for Governor and Senator. In 2008, President Obama won a blowout and the Democrats won two out of three row offices. In 2012, President Obama and Senator Casey won fairly comfortable wins, and the Democrats swept the row offices. In 2014, Governor Wolf won easily. In 2015, in a relatively new outcome for off-years, Democrats swept all the state judicial races handily. The only exception in which Republicans did well in Pennsylvania statewides recently was 2010, which was a year they did well everywhere. In other words, the PA GOP hasn't done so well in recent years. Donald Trump is not a particularly strong candidate according to polls, and he doesn't have a really strong campaign. In other words, I don't see him flipping Pennsylvania right now. I don't see why people are giving this story legs.

Check back in November.