Uniting the Party Comes Down to a Small Pocket of People

While we've all been battling over the Hillary-Bernie fight, a funny thing has happened- the primaries have reached their ending. Hillary Clinton will cross 2,383 delegates on June 7th when the polls close in New Jersey, and will at that point be the presumptive nominee. At that point, Bernie can either drop out or simply continue to Philadelphia without really any chance at winning, but that will be his call. She will begin searching for a VP, forming a transition team, and doing all the things that presumptive nominees do. Another part of this will begin to happen though- unification. That will essentially fall on Hillary and Bernie, more so than anyone else, to decide if they are on the same team or not.

Bernie will probably have to make the first choice- does he take this fight to a roll-call vote, or does he want a primetime speaking opportunity Monday or Tuesday. Given that the vote is Wednesday, he will have to make up his mind before the convention about what he intends to do. Then the real fun starts. Is he considered for VP? What parts of the platform does he get influence over? What lasting impression will he get to leave on this race? These are tough questions.

In the end though, it is Hillary Clinton who will need the Sanders supporters, as every nominee needs their rival's backers. Bernie Sanders will end the primary season in the neighborhood of 13 million votes strong, a large chunk by any measure. A very typical two-thirds of them say they will vote for Clinton now, meaning about 8.5 million are in her column. I would venture a guess that about ten percent of them will never vote for her, about 1.3 million. That 9.8 million still leaves 3.2 million out there. I suspect that once the nomination fight ends, a few more people will trickle into her column, giving her about 75% of them, or 9.7 million. Given those that she can't get, that leaves about two million people.

Now, maybe you think two million votes matters, maybe you don't. I tend to think it does. It doesn't to the point of bending over backwards to give Sanders anything and everything he would ever want, but it does to the point that the Clinton campaign should try to give him a dignified and celebratory exit. A nod to his supporters on the Vice-Presidential choice (to be read: a progressive), integrating some of his policy plans, a prime-time speaking spot, and perhaps a nod to him that as President she will join him on some major policy position that he tries to pass in the Senate, would all make sense. While this race has turned bitter, Bernie has done more than well enough to earn a strong consolation package for his campaign. Hopefully Hillary can bring herself there.