My Thoughts on College Football

Next weekend will be the final real weekend of the college football season. Sure, after that we still will have the Heisman Trophy presentation, and Army-Navy, but that's all going to be basically after we know who is still alive to go to college football's playoffs. After a wild weekend in week 13 of the season, we know that Clemson, Alabama, Iowa, and Michigan State pretty much control their fate. We know that Notre Dame is dead. We know that Oklahoma has won their conference and now waits. We know that Ohio State is done, and waits. We know that Stanford remains alive, for now, and has to win next week.

If I was in charge of ranking these teams, I'd rank them:

1. Clemson- A well-earned undefeated regular season earns them this spot. If they do their job, and win this week against UNC, they are in.
2. Alabama- Since the Ole Miss loss, I think they've been the best team in the country. Beat Florida, win the SEC, and go to the playoffs.
3. Iowa- You can't argue with undefeated, even if you have trouble believing it. I'll be pulling for the Hawkeyes this weekend, but I'd be surprised. If they win, they deserve to be in.
4. Michigan State- You beat Ohio State and Michigan in conference, Oregon out of it, and you deserve this chance. With one loss, they can't lose to Iowa and get in, but I'd put them in right now and we'll see what happens.
5. Oklahoma- I'm not a believer. They lost to Texas. With that said, they won a power five conference with just one loss, and they torched Oklahoma State on the road last week. I'm not saying they get in when one team loses the Big Ten, i'm putting them here as a holding spot until we know a little more.
6. Ohio State- They have one loss, to Michigan State no less. They won the title last year, and beat Alabama on the road to it. They've lost three games in three years, won a title, beat just about everyone in that time, and are being penalized for playing Michigan State late. If Iowa wins, it's really hard to put them in, since they lost to Michigan State. If Michigan State wins, I'd consider jumping them over Oklahoma. I think they're a more threatening team.
7. Stanford- They have two losses, so i'm really not in favor of them getting in. If they win the PAC-12 though, and all hell breaks loose this week, they deserve to be in position to capitalize after beating Notre Dame and potentially USC to finish.
8. Notre Dame- Unfortunately, even two close losses eliminates them. They would need Clemson, Alabama, and Stanford to lose (as well as the inevitable loss by one of the Big Ten finalists) to have a shot. That's a mountain too high.
9. Florida State- They just dominated Florida, but they also are a little too far out. A fluke play against Georgia Tech did them in.
10. North Carolina- I'm not sure if I believe in them yet, they did lose to South Carolina. I do want to see how they do with Clemson.

So that's my rankings. This weekend though, we settle championships on the field. It's conference title weekend, and so I'm putting forward my picks for those games too-

• MAC- I'm taking Northern Illinois to surprise a very good Bowling Green team. They've been there before.
• AAC- I'm taking Temple to go on the road and surprise a Houston team that has been repeatedly silencing their doubters. 
• Conference USA- I'm taking Western Kentucky to get it done against Southern Mississippi.
• SEC- Florida will hang in better than expected, but I think Alabama wins a lower-scoring affair, and the conference.
• Mountain West- I'm taking San Diego State to get the job done in a thriller with Air Force.
• PAC-12- I'm calling the upset. USC stuns Stanford to win the conference title in a year their coach got fired.
• Big Ten- I think Michigan State gets the job done and ends Iowa's dream season.
• ACC- Clemson out shoots UNC to win the ACC in a thriller.

So, if that plays out, I have Clemson, Alabama, and Michigan State in. That would bring it down to Oklahoma and Ohio State for the last spot. My guess is that Oklahoma will get the spot. I'd probably vote for Ohio State. So that means, my "major" bowls would be-

• Cotton Bowl-Semi-Final- Alabama vs. Michigan State
• Orange Bowl-Semi-Final- Clemson vs. Oklahoma
• Rose Bowl- USC vs. Iowa
• Fiesta Bowl- Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
• Sugar Bowl- Baylor vs. Florida
• Peach Bowl- Florida State vs. Temple

That's just my picks. I also took some upsets at the conference title level.

I'm also taking Derrick Henry of Alabama to win the Heisman, by the way.

The Season Outlook for my Favorite College Football Teams

Football season is almost over. I know, that's a shock. We are just a few weeks away from college football's season being over, and we'll know who's going where for the post-season games. Here's the outlook for each of the teams I follow:

• Notre Dame- This is the simple scenario- win and you're in. If Notre Dame beats Boston College at Fenway, and then beats Stanford in California, they are likely to make the playoffs on New Year's Eve. Win out, and they're in.
• Temple- Well, if Temple had won on Saturday, this would be simple. Instead, they have to win out, beating Memphis and UCONN to get into the AAC title game. If they lose either, they have to hope for a South Florida loss. They are unlikely to be home either way, as Houston and Navy would both get the home game instead now. Temple really has to win out to get back into the rankings, win the conference, and get a desired bowl game.
• Penn State- The 7-3 Nittany Lions aren't making the playoffs or winning the Big Ten. They finish the season against Michigan and Michigan State, and will be underdogs for both games. Winning out would put them in a prime position for a major bowl, while losing out will put them in a B-list game.
• Pitt- The 7-3 Panthers will finish up with home games against Louisville and Miami. Pitt will have to win both, and get a UNC loss or two to get into the ACC title game. Even so, a 9-3 Pitt team will get a nice bowl game.
• Rutgers- The 3-7 Scarlet Knights won't be going to a bowl game, or doing anything else fun. They'll be firing people after the season. They finish up with Army and Maryland.

Happy Friday, November 13th, 2015

No, we're not related.

Week 11 Football Predictions

Last week I went 15-3 on my high school predictions. I'm 135-36 on the season, which is my final number for the regular season. Here's my predictions for week eleven.

• Wyoming Valley West 35 Nazareth 28
• Liberty 49 Stroudsburg 28
• Easton 21 Freedom 14
• Parkland 42 Delaware Valley 7
• Lehighton 28 Blue Mt. 14
• Bethlehem Catholic 35 Saucon Valley 21
• Notre Dame 35 North Schuylkill 14
• Northwestern 28 Salisbury 21
• Tri-Valley 28 Williams Valley 14
• Marian Catholic 28 Mahanoy Valley 21
• Northampton 21 Pope John Paul II 7
• Palisades 28 Meyers 21
• Southern Lehigh 28 Jim Thorpe 21
• Central Catholic 35 Valley View 7
• Emmaus 28 Williamsport 7
• Pleasant Valley 35 Reading 14
• Warren Hills 21 Old Tappan 14
• Phillipsburg 28 Woodbridge 7
• Belvidere 21 Roselle Park 14

I went 6-1 on college games last week, and i'm 55-13 on the season. For week eleven, my picks are:

• Notre Dame 45 Wake Forest 10
• Temple 24 South Florida 17
• Pitt 24 Duke 21
• Nebraska 27 Rutgers 14
• Lehigh 27 Colgate 21
• Moravian 21 Muhlenberg 14

I went a pedestrian 7-6 on NFL games this past week, and I'm just 77-56 on the season. My week ten predictions are:

• Jets 24 Bills 21
• Ravens 21 Jaguars 17
• Steelers 17 Browns 14
• Panthers 27 Titans 14
• Rams 31 Bears 10
• Buccaneers 24 Cowboys 21
• Packers 31 Lions 17
• Eagles 24 Dolphins 20
• Saints 35 Redskins 31
• Vikings 28 Raiders 24
• Broncos 31 Chiefs 10
• Patriots 31 Giants 28
• Seahawks 28 Cardinals 27
• Bengals 35 Texans 14

Last week I went 28-10. On the season, i'm 267-105.

#BeatTheMules

Moravian went out and took care of business this Saturday, hammering Juniata College 42-10. Moravian is now 8-1 on the season, and were tied for 5th in the NCAA Division III South Regional rankings going in. While they are highly unlikely to win the Centennial Conference because Johns Hopkins is going to, their road forward is really rather simple- win, and go to the playoffs.

If Moravian wins and finishes 9-1, they are likely to get an at-large bid to the NCAA D-3 playoffs. If they lose and go 8-2, they will get a bowl game in the Centennial-MAC series. What stands in their way of course is arch-rival Muhlenberg. Next Saturday at 1 pm in Allentown, the Hounds will take on the Mules on the road, with the season in the balance. If the rivalry wasn't enough, perhaps the playoff berth will turn the intensity of this game up to level eleven too.

Beat the Mules.

Week Ten Football Predictions

It's the tenth week of competitive football in 2015. I guess it's really almost Winter. It's also November, rivalry month. This weekend is senior night at Easton and Moravian. It's Eagles-Cowboys II week. In other words, it's a great weekend to be in the Lehigh Valley to watch football. I went 6-1 last week on college games, and i'm 49-12 on the season. I went a pedestrian 7-7 on pro games last week, and i'm 70-50 on the season. I went 12-5 on high school games, and i'm 120-33 on the season. For the week I was 25-13. On the season i'm 239-95.

College

• Notre Dame 27 Pitt 24
• Northwestern 20 Penn State 17
• Temple 34 SMU 13
• Michigan 45 Rutgers 10
• Holy Cross 24 Lehigh 21
• Colgate 38 Lafayette 10
• Moravian 28 Juniata 7

NFL

• Bengals 37 Browns 14
• Bills 24 Dolphins 21
• Packers 31 Panthers 28
• Jets 21 Jaguars 17
• Rams 27 Vikings 21
• Patriots 42 Redskins 24
• Saints 49 Titans 14
• Steelers 31 Raiders 21
• Giants 42 Buccaneers 21
• Falcons 17 49ers 3
• Broncos 31 Colts 3
• Eagles 24 Cowboys 14
• Chargers 37 Bears 21

High School

• Easton 35 Nazareth 28
• Liberty 24 Freedom 21
• Parkland 49 Emmaus 21
• Whitehall 42 Northampton 14
• East Stroudsburg North 21 East Stroudsburg South 7
• Stroudsburg 42 Pleasant Valley 14
• Pocono Mt. West 42 Pocono Mt. East 35
• Dieruff 28 Allen 7
• Bethlehem Catholic 35 Central Catholic 21
• Notre Dame 49 Wilson 0
• Pen Argyl 14 Bangor 7
• Saucon Valley 42 Palisades 14
• Northern Lehigh 28 Palmerton 14
• Northwestern 42 Catasauqua 7
• Southern Lehigh 28 Salisbury 21
• Phillipsburg 42 Scotch Plains 7
• Warren Hills 28 Hackettstown 21
• Belvidere 21 Bound Brook 7

Week Nine Predictions

The NFL is reaching the mid-point, college football is in the stretch run, and high school football is down to it's last two weeks. The weather is about to get cold-cold, not just cold, and the football is getting hot. Let's get to this week's picks.

High School

• Easton 28 Freedom 21
• Parkland 38 Nazareth 21
• Stroudsburg 42 Northampton 14
• Liberty 35 Central Catholic 21
• Bethlehem Catholic 49 Allen 7
• Dieruff 28 East Stroudsburg South 7
• Whitehall 28 Emmaus 21
• East Stroudsburg North 35 Pocono Mt. West 7
• Pleasant Valley 28 Pocono Mt. East 0
• Notre Dame 35 Saucon Valley 28
• Southern Lehigh 42 Catasauqua 7
• Northwestern 35 Northern Lehigh 28
• Salisbury 28 Palmerton 14
• Wilson 28 Bangor 7
• Palisades 35 Pen Argyl 7
• Belvidere 28 Arthur L. Johnson 0
• Warren Hills 28 Scotch Plains 21

College

• Pitt 28 UNC 24
• Penn State 31 Illinois 21
• Notre Dame 31 Temple 17
• Wisconsin 42 Rutgers 17
• Bucknell 38 Lafayette 7
• Lehigh 24 Georgetown 21
• Moravian 28 Gettysburg 14

NFL

• Patriots 31 Dolphins 21
• Chiefs 20 Lions 17
• Chargers 31 Ravens 21
• Vikings 24 Bears 10
• Cardinals 17 Browns 10
• Steelers 34 Bengals 31
• Titans 13 Texans 10
• Giants 24 Saints 21
• Rams 27 49ers 3
• Falcons 17 Buccaneers 10
• Jets 24 Raiders 17
• Seahawks 24 Cowboys 10
• Packers 27 Broncos 21
• Panthers 24 Colts 14

What We Learned, Week Eight of Football

What we learned last week-

• The Eagles are who they are. They are not a contender to defeat teams like Carolina, Green Bay, or Atlanta. Cam Newton threw three interceptions, the defense played relatively well, and yet they could not win. At some point you accept reality.
• Football is alive in New York. Both teams have winning records, and the Giants are back in first. The Jets look like the better team, but the Patriots are in the way.
• I went 8-6 on the week, and I'm 63-43 in NFL games this year. I'm struggling.
• Temple gets to go into the Notre Dame game undefeated and the center of attention. Good for them. It's a long time coming.
• Penn State is bowl bound. Given that they aren't a national title or Big Ten title contender, the season is a success now, I guess.
• Pitt is 6-1. They are quietly a really good team. Their one loss was to Iowa, who is really, really good.
• I went 6-1 on college games this week, and I'm 43-11 on the year.
• I've been really good at picking high school games, but I got Easton wrong. They absolutely had to beat Liberty to have a shot at the playoffs. They did it easily. I thought they'd get crushed. Now they'll face Freedom, who just lost their first game. Should be interesting.
• It's safe to call Parkland the best team in the area.
• Phillipsburg still has one loss. This season is somewhat like last season, so far for them.
• I went 13-5 this week on high school games, my worst week yet. I'm 108-28 on the season though.
• My week record was 27-12. My season record is 214-82.

Eighth Week of Competitive Football Predictions

Through seven weeks of predictions, I have a 187-70 record. That's not bad, but the distribution is mediocre. I'm 95-23 on picking high school games and 37-10 picking college games. Those are good records. My NFL record is just 55-37 through six weeks, and I was a pedestrian 8-6 this season. One of the issues is that normal NFL trends aren't holding up so far this year- it's a strange football season. Just 10 teams have a winning record, and 14 are at .500 or above. A whopping 18 teams have a bad record right now. Some teams- I'm looking at you Seattle and Baltimore- have been huge disappointments. Teams like Kansas City, San Diego, and Detroit have been impossible to pick right. So, i'm struggling.

Anyway, here's this week's picks:

NFL

• Seattle 24 San Francisco 20
• Buffalo 27 Jacksonville 14
• Detroit 27 Minnesota 21
• Indianapolis 31 New Orleans 24
• Pittsburgh 17 Kansas City 10
• Miami 17 Houston 7
• New England 31 New York Jets 10
• St. Louis 27 Cleveland 10
• Atlanta 31 Tennessee 14
• Washington 17 Tampa Bay 14
• San Diego 34 Oakland 17
• New York 27 Dallas 21
• Philadelphia 27 Carolina 24
• Arizona 24 Baltimore 17

Lots of dangerous games in this bunch. There are too many teams I can't figure out. I keep waiting for them to get it together, and they don't.

College

• Temple 27 East Carolina 20
• Pittsburgh 34 Syracuse 20
• Penn State 24 Maryland 20
• Ohio State 45 Rutgers 14
• Lehigh 24 Fordham 21
• Holy Cross 42 Lafayette 10
• Moravian 27 Franklin & Marshall 14

Not many gimmes to pick. Temple keeps winning, but they scare me. Pitt looks good now, but scared me earlier. Penn State could definitely make me look bad. Just a tough week to pick.

High School

• Liberty 35 Easton 14
• Parkland 28 Freedom 21
• Bethlehem Catholic 42 Stroudsburg 35
• Nazareth 42 Whitehall 21
• Central Catholic 35 Northampton 14
• Emmaus 35 Pocono Mt. East 14
• East Stroudsburg South 21 Allen 7
• Pocono Mt. West 21 Dieruff 14
• Pleasant Valley 21 East Stroudsburg North 20
• Saucon Valley 63 Bangor 0
• Salisbury 28 Catasauqua 0
• Southern Lehigh 28 Northern Lehigh 21
• Northwestern 35 Palmerton 7
• Notre Dame 35 Palisades 14
• Wilson 21 Pen Argyl 14
• Belvidere 28 Pingry 21
• Phillipsburg 28 Hunterdon Central 27
• Warren Hills 21 Somerville 14

This should be an interesting week.