Secondary Analysis of Tuesday's Election in the Lehigh Valley

Last week we had a fairly significant election in the Lehigh Valley, one that produced substantial Republican majorities on both county councils, but Democratic victories at just about every other level of government. Democrats expanded their base of votes beyond the cities, and yet the GOP remains relevant locally. How did that happen? What stands out from this election?

First, check out my initial breakdown. And this. Then, here's some things that stand out to me.

• In both counties, it's worth noting that Democrats did really well along the Lehigh River running north out of the cities. Democrats saw great vote numbers out of communities like Northampton, North Catasauqua, Whitehall, and Coplay. These areas often get neglected in campaigns around here, but this year they weren't. It paid off.
• There are some really close elections out there yet. In North Catasauqua, there are three candidates (two Dems, one GOP) tied with the same number of votes for second place on the council (a Dem was first). A Commissioners race in Bethlehem Township is still separated by eight votes. In Lower Saucon, a race is three points. There are quite a few other races in Northampton County that were decided by under one-hundred votes. Yes, every vote counts.
• It is really hard to pin down baseline vote numbers by party in competitive townships. For instance, in Upper Nazareth Township, the Republicans won both Supervisor seats, and the Democratic candidates for the two seats were one seat apart. Meanwhile in Palmer, the results of our races saw Democrats having a range of 435 votes, with Sam Murray falling closer to the upper end. There's no way to pin any of those numbers to the parties.
• People seem to want to read something into the Bethlehem Council election results, but that's foolish on many levels. First off, general election trends in Bethlehem are nearly irrelevant to city politics, because the elections are decided in the primary. Second off, the effort levels of the candidates were very different. Third off, I doubt that most of the city was actually moved by any specific issue at this point. In short, don't over-read uncontested elections.
• Some campaigns are not about party, and some are. Sam Murray out-performed the party in many municipalities, and actually even out-performed the Supreme Court candidates. On the other hand, Scott Parsons lost his race almost entirely because of his party label.
• Majorities in Northampton County will be decided in the at-large council elections moving forward. Republicans did not challenge in the seats held by Councilmen Kraft and Werner. Democrats ran in the seats now held by Dietz and Cusick, but both races were closer to ten points. Chances are that they aren't winning those any time soon. Whoever wins three of five seats in two years will run the council, probably for four years.
• Democrats are actually closer to a majority in Lehigh County than Northampton County. In Lehigh, it's a 6-3 Republican Majority, but one that's likely to hold for four years. In Northampton County, it's 7-2 Republican, though that will be more in jeopardy in 2017.
• Allentown elections didn't change in their result, but the numbers were closer than normal.
• I don't get the trend of competitive constable races. I remember when no one would run for them.

That's all I have for now.