Phillies First Week Notes

Some notes on the first week that was:

• From the department of bad signs- Bourjos and Hunter have 18 at-bats a piece, while Darin Ruf has six. This isn't me telling you how I think Ruf will be awesome, this is me telling you that the .167 and .111 hitting outfielders scare me.
• Cesar Hernandez is off to a nice start, hitting .421 (8-for-19) and posting an .895 OPS in week one. Lost in that though is a very concerning stat- two times he was caught stealing this week. Cesar needs to hit for high average and steal bases for his offensive game to play up enough to make him a long-term solution at second base. While I believe that he will, this week he was caught stealing more than we would like to see. He also did strike out four times, a rate he cannot continue at.
• Jeremy Hellickson wasn't just good on the mound- he went 2-for-4 this week.
• The IronPigs were supposed to open on Thursday in Syracuse, and instead they opened on Friday in Allentown. The Phillies AAA club actually played a doubleheader at Coca-Cola Park in front of one (1) fan. They lost both games and are 0-2 so far. Most of the players that fans are worried most about- Nick Williams, Will Venable, Darnell Sweeney, Andrew Knapp, and Tommy Joseph- all went hitless in the two games. Brock Stassi had a hit though in three at-bats. Adam Morgan and Jake Thompson both threw five innings of one run ball though in the losses.
• Jeanmar Gomez is getting a lot of attention for his emergence in the closer race, closing out two saves this weekend. Hector Neris is probably getting less attention for his 4.1 innings of one hit ball this week. It'll be interesting to see if he eases into more important spots if he keeps pitching well.
• Jeremy Hellickson should be 2-0 for the kind of week he had. In 11.2 innings, he gave up two earned runs. While I'm not confusing him with Clayton Kershaw, a return towards his early career self in Tampa would be huge for Hellickson's value, both to himself and the Phillies. He could prove a valuable trade piece, and could earn himself a decent payday as a free agent.
• With Roman Quinn's walk-off single on Sunday, Reading is 2-2 in the AA Eastern League. Jorge Alfaro is hitting .500 a week in, while most of the other prospects of note are scuffling in the .200s. It's worth noting though, Reading was playing in 34 degree weather on Saturday, which is frankly ridiculous for April.
• I don't want to pick on Pete Mackanin too much a week into the season, but should it have taken until now to think about Jeanmar Gomez as a potential closer, or Darin Ruf as a left-fielder? I might understand it if either were a rookie, or weren't on last year's team even, but these are guys he already knew. It strikes me as odd that he didn't know to try them.
• No matter how many lefties you carry in the pen, the rotten stats of the week go to lefties Daniel Stumpf and James Russell, rocking 40.50 and 54.00 ERA's a week into the season. Stumpf also could be linked to the rotten state line of his fellow Rule-5 pick, Tyler Goeddel, who struck out in four of his five at-bats this past week. Obviously the Phillies want to get both through the season on the roster, but both have to show they can compete a little more than they did this week.
• Clearwater posted a 2-2 week in the Florida State League this week. Carlos Tocci posted a .471 average on the week, picking up right where he left off in Spring Training. Kyle Martin hit two homers on the week two.
• Odubel Herrera's week wasn't just terrible at the plate. "El Torito" posted two errors in center field in the opening week. That's impressively terrible.
• Starters hitting below the Mendoza on week one- Odubel Herrera, Peter Bourjos, Cedric Hunter, and Darin Ruf. Ruf didn't get a lot of at-bats, but we'll count him with the others for now.
• Lakewood got off to a 1-3 start, which is only really scratching the surface for how bad the week was. Super prospect Franklyn Kilome pitched two innings in his start and has an ERA of 22.50 after. Former top pick Shane Watson is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA after going four innings in his season debut. Alberto Tirado, a highly ranked reliever picked up for Ben Revere, has a WHIP of 3.00 after 1.2 innings in which he walked three guys. In case you think I'm just picking on the pitching, Cornelius Randolph struck out six times in his first week, on the way to a .105 average. Jose Pujols was pretty terrible too at .167, and he struck out eight times. It was an ugly week.

Thoughts on the Upper Minor League Phillies Rosters

Now that we know the make-up of the Phillies full-season affiliates, there's a lot more to talk about. Which teams will be fun to watch? Which prospects made big leaps forward? Which went backwards? There is a lot to watch here. Here's my outlook on the upper minors:

Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Here's the roster:

• Starting Rotation- Adam Morgan*, David Buchanan*, Mark Appel, Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson
• Bullpen- Andrew Bailey, Ernesto Frieri, Edward Mujica, Luis Garcia*, Elvis Araujo*, Bobby LaFromboise, Colton Murray*
• Catchers- Andrew Knapp, J.P. Arencibia
• Infielders- Tommy Joseph, Brock Stassi, Carlos Alonso, Angelys Nina, Taylor Featherston*, Ryan Jackson
• Outfielders- Nick Williams, Darnell Sweeney*, Wil Venable, David Lough, Cam Perkins

My outlook on this team is that it's fairly impossible to have an outlook in AAA. As with any International League roster, this is going to change a lot, all year. With that said, I like the early roster. They have stacked the starting pitching with serious prospects that they wanted to face more advanced competition. They've filled the bullpen up with major league ready pitchers who can help the Phillies if needed, and provide this team with assurances that they will win games they lead from the 7th and later. They've also brought a number of solid prospects up to this level for this season, most particularly Williams and Knapp. I'm really interested to see how they shake out at-bats for Stassi and Joseph, particularly with Arencibia here. I assume at least two of the three will play on nights where there is a DH. Watch Nina to have a pretty good season here. I feel this team could perform above .500 this year and contend for a playoff spot. As for what to watch, it's simple: Knapp, Williams, Appel, Eflin, Thompson, and that Joseph/Stassi spot.

Reading Fightin' Phils

Here's the roster:

• Starting Rotation- Alec Asher*, Ben Lively, Nick Pivetta, Ricardo Pinto, Anthony Vasquez
• Bullpen- Edubray Ramos*, Severino Gonzalez*, Yacksel Rios, Tom Windle, Ulises Joaquin, Joely Rodriguez, Reinier Roibal
• Catchers- Jorge Alfaro*, Logan Moore
• Infielders- Rhys Hoskins, Jake Fox, Jesmuel Valentin, Angelo Mora, J.P. Crawford, K.C. Serna, Harold Martinez
• Outfielders- Dylan Cozens, Roman Quinn, Aaron Brown, Christian Marrero

One very clear thing about this team is that they should hit the ball, a lot. They actually have a really nice rotation as well, so I'm pretty high on this team's chances. They once again stacked the top four spots in this rotation with talented arms, stacked the outfield with some of the best pure athletes in the system, and sprinkled the roster with major prospects like Crawford, Quinn, Cozens, Alfaro, Pinto, and more. This team is a little easier to project as probably being very good in the Eastern League, as I'm expecting them to contend for the championship for a second straight year. Obviously watch Crawford. Obviously watch Cozens, Quinn, and Brown. Watch Hoskins. Watch Edubray Ramos and Tom Windle. Watch Pinto, Lively, Pivetta, and Asher. This team is going to be very fun to watch.

The Phillies Start to Telegraph Their Minor League Decisions

These guys will be in Reading, together.

The Phillies had been playing close to the vest throughout Spring Training on where they would assign some of their top prospects to start the 2016 season. Some of that was because many of them spent a significant amount of time in big league camp. Some of it was also because they were trying to decide what big league camp players they wanted to stash in AAA. In the case of several prospects though, it seems that the decisions on where they will start 2016 goes beyond anything to do with other players, and is all about their own development.

This was clearly the case in making decisions about prospects like J.P. Crawford and Roman Quinn, both of whom are ticketed to join one of the feature pick-ups of the Hamels trade, catcher Jorge Alfaro in Reading. The talented trio are all players that Phillies fans want to see in Philadelphia sooner than later, but the organization is remaining extremely patient with all three. Perhaps it is about figuring out their future plans for incumbents at the Major League level, but one has to believe that with a prospect as good as Crawford, no one but himself figured into the Phillies thought-process. He and Quinn both played part of last season in Reading, while Alfaro finished the season on the disabled list, after coming over to the Phillies. All three could see in-season promotions to AAA, though Crawford figures to happen the fastest. Last year he got off to a blazing start while repeating Clearwater, and after less than a month, he was promoted to Reading. Expect that he and Quinn in particular could be promoted to Lehigh Valley fairly fast.

If they get there, they will run into a very crowded group that will include top prospects Nick Williams, Andrew Knapp, and Tommy Joseph. Williams and Knapp were not surprises, as both excelled last year in Reading and could fill Major League needs sooner than later if they repeat that success in Allentown. Joseph was somewhat of a surprise, as Brock Stassi appeared set to be the first baseman and J.P. Arencibia also will need a spot, possibly as the DH regularly. Joseph had a very good Spring, including a walk in last night's Future's Game, and may have regained a lot of favor in the organization as a first base option for the future. Still only 24, he may just still have some time to break out.

Final rosters for all of the affiliates are still days away, particularly as the Phillies send major league players down in the next few days and try to make room for all of the players in camp. The Minor League season starts in the middle of next week (Thursday in the AA and AAA levels), and lots of other moves still need to be announced. It is hard to set rotations and bullpens up though until you know who is on waivers, who has passed through, and how many spots you have open at each level. One of the more interesting announcements to come is where they will assign prospect pitchers Jake Thompson, Mark Appel, and Zach Eflin. Based on the patience shown with Crawford and Quinn, any of the three (if not all) could end up in Reading as well. A lot of players who were on the playoff-bound Williamsport, Clearwater, and Reading squads may find that promotions out of camp are going to be difficult to come by, or at least more difficult than in recent years. The Phillies hard decisions certainly won't end after they set their roster on Sunday for the big league club.