Thursday, October 22, 2015

The Democratic "Horse Race" is Over

Yesterday in the Rose Garden of the White House the "horse race" for the Democratic Nomination for President ended. The field for President won't grow any more. The Democratic race is likely to come down to Clinton vs. Sanders.

For all intents and purposes, this race is Hillary Clinton vs. Hillary Clinton. She's likely to now top 50% in polls nationally, and may even regain her leads in the early states. Sanders is far from dead, but he'll have to beat her in a one-on-one race. If she doesn't make mistakes, and hits her points, she will win.

In this sense the horse race is over, and a campaign has begun. It's Hillary's to lose. If Sanders wants to be the nominee, he'll now have to come after her to get it. There is no third wheel to lower her lead in the polls, no way to survive on a plurality. Bernie Sanders will have to take a majority from her to win. It's all about an actual election.

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